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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher in range trading. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand once again this week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast early in the week, then near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 70.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 77,326 bales, from 77,326 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7520, 7430, and 7400 March, with resistance of 7700, 7740 and 7800 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday in spite of the cold weather making its way into the state. The cold is more a reminder of the time of year it is and less an actual threat to trees and fruit. The weather in Florida remains good for the crops. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00, 128.00, and 130.00 January. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Dec 24
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
12/5/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/5/2020 11/30/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 232.48 276.83 -16.0%
Retail/Institutional 5.66 5.87 -3.5%
Total 238.14 282.69 -15.8%
Pack
Bulk 3.75 0.35 967.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.12 0.94 19.6%
Total Pack 4.87 1.29 277.6%
Reprocessed -2.43 -1.15 112.2%
Pack from Fruit 2.44 0.14 1593.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.02 -0.17 -87.8%
Imports – Foreign 1.65 2.73 -39.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.32 0.99 -68.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 235.75 279.58 -15.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.79 6.81 -0.3%
Total 242.54 286.39 -15.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.55 3.23 71.7%
Exports 0.32 0.20 60.3%
Total (Bulk) 5.87 3.43 71.0%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.06 0.90 17.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.06 0.90 17.8%
Total Movement 6.93 4.33 60.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 229.88 276.15 -16.8%
Retail/Institutional 5.73 5.91 -3.0%
Ending Inventory 235.61 282.06 -16.5%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
5-Dec-20 30-Nov-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 254.09 311.95 -18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.82 -4.5%
Total 259.65 317.77 -18.3%
Pack
Bulk 6.75 3.43 97.1%
Retail/Institutional 9.24 10.99 -15.9%
Total Pack 15.99 14.41 11.0%
Reprocessed -13.20 -13.81 -4.4%
Pack from Fruit 2.79 0.60 365.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.12 -0.28 -56.3%
Imports – Foreign 21.95 6.35 245.8%
Domestic Receipts 0.02 1.56 -98.9%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.11 0.13 -10.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 3.06 4.20 -27.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.51 0.13 289.2%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 273.18 313.65 -12.9%
Retail/Institutional 14.80 16.81 -12.0%
Total 287.98 330.46 -12.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 39.89 40.60 -1.7%
Domestic 3.41 2.87 19.0%
Exports 43.30 43.46 -0.4%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 9.07 10.90 -16.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 9.07 10.90 -16.8%
Total Movement 52.37 54.36 -3.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 229.88 276.15 -16.8%
Retail/Institutional 5.73 5.91 -3.0%
Ending Inventory 235.61 282.06 -16.5%
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were little changed in both markets as most of the world got ready for the Christmas holidays. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season and just about everyone is getting helped. Brazil is expected to turn drier again next week. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.396 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 123.00, 120.00, and 116.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1380, 1390, and 1410 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on concerning Brazil rainfall patterns. Trends are turning up again. It has been raining in much of Brazil and the production of cane should be improved. Drier weather is expected to return next week, especially in central-south growing areas. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1500 and 1540 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1510, 1530, and 1560 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 401.00, 395.00, and 384.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00, 418.00, and 423.00 March.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Down 20.5% in 1H Dec. as Season Winds Down
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of December compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 2.1 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 20.5% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 85,000 tons of sugar, up 70.3%, and made 235 million liters of ethanol, a decline of 5.8%.
The production mix for the first half of December was 29.5% sugar to 70.5% ethanol, compared with 15.35% sugar and 84.65% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
The crushing season is approaching its end, with little cane left to be processed by the region’s mills. That can lead to big jumps or declines in output compared with a year earlier because the amounts produced are so small.
There were in fact big changes in the production mix in the current season, though, because of good demand for sugar in export markets and weaker-than-normal demand for ethanol in Brazil because of the slump in economic activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
In the season from April 1 through Dec. 16, mills in the region crushed 597 million tons of cane, up 3.2% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 44.2%, to 38.2 million tons, and ethanol output fell 9%, to 29.1 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Dec. 16 was 46.2% sugar to 53.8% ethanol, compared with 34.5% sugar and 65.5% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed mixed before the Christmas holiday. Both markets remain in a trading range. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a strong return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.877 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2440, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2580, 2630, and 2650 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1790 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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