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DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Dec 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 23.111 million pounds, in November, 21.5% above the previous
month, and 57.5% below November 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds. public
Nov 30 Oct 31 Nov 30 Oct 31 warehouse
2020 2020 2019 2019 stocks/Nov
pork bellies 23,111 19,025 54,416 45,414
orange juice 620,290 653,093 725,568 757,808
french fries 970,871 1,022,623 954,826 942,518
other potatoes 205,422 218,760 226,101 228,186
chicken rstr (whole) 18,768 24,024 22,837 23,740
ham 74,722 123,324 110,635 173,804
total pork 414,133 447,115 574,840 611,916 370,340
total beef 511,460 500,239 478,261 466,266 500,113
total red meat 960,576 981,715 1,092,584 1,121,646 904,107
total chicken 882,432 911,330 979,326 954,326
total turkey 194,441 376,347 221,996 393,008
total poultry 1,079,449 1,291,160 1,204,341 1,351,399 1,031,957
===============================================================================

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher again and made a new high close on the weekly charts again. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand once again last week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast early in the week, then near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 70.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 77,326 bales, from 77,326 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 416,700 bales this year and 67,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 30,900 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7400, 7350, and 7250 March, with resistance of 7600, 7700 and 7740 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying. The weather in Florida remains good for the crops. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00, 128.00, and 130.00 January. Support is at 118.00, 115.00, and 113.00 January, with resistance at 122.00, 125.00, and 126.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Dec 21
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
11/28/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
11/28/2020 11/23/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 234.90 280.64 -16.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.51 6.09 -9.6%
Total 240.40 286.73 -16.2%
Pack
Bulk 0.15 0.66 -76.9%
Retail/Institutional 0.76 1.09 -30.8%
Total Pack 0.91 1.75 -48.1%
Reprocessed -0.84 -1.63 -48.1%
Pack from Fruit 0.06 0.12 -48.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.02 -0.04 -60.6%
Imports – Foreign 0.73 0.20 261.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.13 -72.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.10 1.62 -93.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 235.11 281.57 -16.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.26 7.19 -12.9%
Total 241.37 288.76 -16.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.23 4.40 -49.4%
Exports 0.41 0.34 19.0%
Total (Bulk) 2.63 4.74 -44.5%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.60 1.32 -54.6%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.60 1.32 -54.6%
Total Movement 3.23 6.06 -46.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 232.48 276.83 -16.0%
Retail/Institutional 5.66 5.87 -3.5%
Ending Inventory 238.14 282.69 -15.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
28-Nov-20 23-Nov-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 254.09 311.95 -18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.82 -4.5%
Total 259.65 317.77 -18.3%
Pack
Bulk 3.01 3.07 -2.2%
Retail/Institutional 8.12 10.05 -19.2%
Total Pack 11.12 13.12 -15.2%
Reprocessed -10.77 -12.67 -15.0%
Pack from Fruit 0.35 0.46 -22.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.10 -0.10 -5.1%
Imports – Foreign 20.30 3.62 460.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.02 1.56 -98.9%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.11 0.13 -10.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 2.74 3.21 -14.5%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.51 0.13 283.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 269.90 310.90 -13.2%
Retail/Institutional 13.68 15.87 -13.8%
Total 283.58 326.77 -13.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 34.34 37.37 -8.1%
Domestic 3.08 2.66 15.8%
Exports 37.43 40.03 -6.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 8.01 10.00 -19.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 8.01 10.00 -19.9%
Total Movement 45.44 50.03 -9.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 232.48 276.83 -16.0%
Retail/Institutional 5.66 5.87 -3.5%
Ending Inventory 238.14 282.69 -15.8%
Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were little changed in both market after a very slow news day. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season and just about everyone is getting helped. Brazil is expected to turn drier again next week. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.382 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1380, 1390, and 1410 January.

DJ Tanzania’s Coffee Output Rose 35.9% in 2019-20 Season
By George Mwangi
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
Tanzania’s coffee output rose by 35.9% in the crop year ended September 2020, the Bank of Tanzania said Wednesday.
In the crop year–August 2019 to September 2020–Tanzania produced a total 92,396 metric ton of coffee compared with 68,000 tons the prior year, the central bank said.
The increase was the result of a bumper harvest, favorable weather conditions and the improvement of the coffee marketing system used at farmgates, which encouraged competition between cooperatives and private companies, according to the bank.
However, production was below an earlier forecast of 100,000 tons.
Tanzania produces both arabica and robusta coffee, mainly for export. It is Africa’s fourth-largest coffee producer after Ethiopia, Uganda and Ivory Coast.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly a little lower but the front month of each market a little higher. It has been raining in much of Brazil and the production of cane should be improved. Drier weather is expected to return next week. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1400 March, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 389.00, and 381.00 March, and resistance is at 406.00, 410.00, and 418.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on long liquidation after the reversal day the previous session. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a strong return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.882 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2440, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2580, 2630, and 2650 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1790 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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