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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher again and made a new high close on the weekly charts again. USDA surprised the market over a week ago when it released its monthly supply and demand reports. The reports showed a significant drop in production of US Cotton and much reduced US ending stocks levels. The reports were bullish and a move to the upper end of the 70 cents range is possible. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand once again last week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 72.87 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 77,678 bales, from 78,031 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 354 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7490, 7740, and 7930 March. Support is at 7600, 7550, and 7460 March, with resistance of 7740, 7770 and 7800 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 15, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 253,558
: Positions :
: 70,262 8,555 43,145 35,794 183,106 85,469 11,110 234,670 245,916: 18,888 7,642
: Changes from: December 8, 2020 (Change in open interest: 16,393) :
: 10,860 -911 2,529 911 15,615 842 124 15,142 17,358: 1,252 -964
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.7 3.4 17.0 14.1 72.2 33.7 4.4 92.6 97.0: 7.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 287 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 134 28 66 51 63 45 21 252 163:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week after making new lows for the move on the charts. The price action turned positive in the last couple of days. The weather in Florida remains mostly benign. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00, 128.00, and 130.00 January. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 126.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 15, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,951 :
: Positions :
: 5,736 9,464 739 123 0 2,485 389 54 719 847 2,077 :
: Changes from: December 8, 2020 :
: 393 -606 7 6 0 -354 283 54 98 146 82 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.1 67.8 5.3 0.9 0.0 17.8 2.8 0.4 5.2 6.1 14.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 17 11 . . 0 9 4 . 13 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher last week in both markets. The move came despite CONAB, the Brazilian crop agency, estimating a new record production for the current year. The market is looking ahead to next year. It has been a weather market and the weather has improved. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season, but the rains are sporadic and not everyone is getting helped. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.370 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,592 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1380, 1390, and 1410 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 15, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 302,788
: Positions :
: 38,178 18,709 71,427 106,041 192,625 73,259 12,816 288,905 295,577: 13,883 7,211
: Changes from: December 8, 2020 (Change in open interest: 232) :
: 2,379 -1,916 3,415 -4,138 -622 -634 -805 1,021 71: -789 161
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 6.2 23.6 35.0 63.6 24.2 4.2 95.4 97.6: 4.6 2.4
: Total Traders: 425 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 150 71 134 119 119 45 23 377 298:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/15/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
125,060 65,145 68,810 16,310 13,633 2,141
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.1% 55.0% 13.0% 10.9% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 44 39 15 4 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,103 7,697 4,950 2,877 5,563 18,400
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.3% 6.2% 4.0% 2.3% 4.4% 14.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 19 17 9 12 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,134 3,866
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was about unchanged for the week and London closed higher. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane should be improving. The first half of November crush was down almost 20% from the previous year as cane production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1400 March, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 389.00, and 381.00 March, and resistance is at 406.00, 410.00, and 418.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 15, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,204,634
: Positions :
: 193,579 44,431 211,453 368,376 836,792 332,654 60,153 1,106,061 1,152,828: 98,572 51,806
: Changes from: December 8, 2020 (Change in open interest: -35,234) :
: -14,817 740 -7,651 -4,418 -25,869 -5,482 -797 -32,368 -33,576: -2,867 -1,658
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 3.7 17.6 30.6 69.5 27.6 5.0 91.8 95.7: 8.2 4.3
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 31 70 77 75 44 21 235 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/15/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
91,002 42,108 75,620 10,303 3,639 2,216
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.3% 83.1% 11.3% 4.0% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
113 33 40 10 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,411 1,595 2,881 2,391 862 1,949
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.8% 1.8% 3.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 4 8 6 7 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,743 2,240
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 2.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed slightly higher last week. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. However, it looks like the exchange buying has come to a halt for now. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.908 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,255 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2440, 2400, and 2310 March. Support is at 2450, 2440, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2520, 2580, and 2630 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1650 and 1570 March. Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1760 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 15, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 248,904
: Positions :
: 35,200 22,284 65,271 70,280 138,287 63,290 14,104 234,041 239,946: 14,863 8,958
: Changes from: December 8, 2020 (Change in open interest: 6,080) :
: -1,060 -1,186 -543 4,094 7,052 2,665 69 5,156 5,393: 924 687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 9.0 26.2 28.2 55.6 25.4 5.7 94.0 96.4: 6.0 3.6
: Total Traders: 207 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 35 59 45 41 37 19 183 137:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/15/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
240,353 138,710 169,858 19,033 14,724 9,738
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.7% 70.7% 7.9% 6.1% 4.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
128 45 47 10 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,523 987 14,321 3,581 571 28,184
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.8% 0.4% 6.0% 1.5% 0.2% 11.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 8 12 14 5 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,263 1,970
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.8%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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