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COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower on speculative selling tied to demand fears due to the potential return on the Coronavirus and a much stronger US Dollar. The weekly export sales report was strong, but not nearly as strong as the previous week. Rains in Texas were negative for prices as well. The chart trends are down on the daily charts. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus and the strong demand could continue as USDA also cut Brazil production due to reduced planted area this year. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers today and Saturday and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers each day and above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers on Sunday, otherwise mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.83 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,801 bales, from 95,801 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7980 May. Support is at 7800, 7660, and 7500 May, with resistance of 7920, 8100 and 8290 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher but trends are still down on the daily charts. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker as the Coronvirus has been less in the US. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around as well. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers have fallen in Brazil, but it is dry now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 108.00, 103.00, and 102.00 May. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 104.00 May, with resistance at 114.00, 116.00, and 118.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets on what appeared to be fund and other speculator selling due to a stronger US Dollar, but recovered to close narrowly mixed. Commercials could have been the buyers. Cash market buyers are not buying much Coffee but offers are not strong from many origins. Vietnam producers are selling some Coffee. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Dry conditions are reported in Brazil again but crop conditions are still good. Trees might get stressed again in the dry weather continues for several more days. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.835 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 117.77 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Dry conditions return for Sunday. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 124.00, 121.00, and 118.00 May, and resistance is at 130.00, 132.00 and 135.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on the stronger US Dollar and increased Brazilian Sugar production at thr expense of Ethanol. The chart trends are still mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand as current demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year and this week could be dry again. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1490, 1460, and 1430 May, and resistance is at 1560, 1600, and 1620 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 433.00, 427.00, and 424.00 May, and resistance is at 452.00, 458.00, and 460.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little lower on demand concerns and London closed a little higher on currency concerns. Chart trends are turning down again. The main crop harvest has started in Nigeria and will soon spread to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Fears of a Coronavirus resurgence are hurting demand ideas. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.191 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2340, 2310, and 2280 May. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2240 May, with resistance at 2470, 2510, and 2560 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1630 May, with resistance at 1740, 1770, and 1800 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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