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COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week on what appeared to be speculative selling. The chart trends are down on the daily charts. The US Dollar was stronger and hurt demand ideas. The weekly export sales report showed solid Cotton demand. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus and the strong demand could continue as USDA also cut Brazil production due to reduced planted area this year. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.07 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,239 bales, from 99,706 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8250, 8000, and 7980 May. Support is at 8360, 8290, and 8100 May, with resistance of 8620, 8740 and 8820 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 289,396
: Positions :
: 70,536 5,328 58,617 55,657 207,900 86,063 9,012 270,873 280,857: 18,523 8,539
: Changes from: March 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 1,345) :
: 2,578 -1,681 701 -909 3,150 -535 -385 1,835 1,785: -490 -440
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.4 1.8 20.3 19.2 71.8 29.7 3.1 93.6 97.0: 6.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 278 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 28 78 53 67 43 19 245 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed near unchanged for the week. The tone of the market is mixed on the daily charts but the weekly charts are still showing a completed bottom formation. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal, then below normal early next week. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 109.00 May, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 124.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,520 :
: Positions :
: 4,823 7,668 1,838 53 0 1,349 2,081 89 1,170 654 993 :
: Changes from: March 9, 2021 :
: -693 298 121 0 0 112 -413 8 -66 -104 -221 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.7 56.7 13.6 0.4 0.0 10.0 15.4 0.7 8.7 4.8 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 16 10 6 . 0 6 15 . 15 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets on what appeared to be fund and other speculator selling based on the stronger US Dollar. The daily and weekly charts appear ready to turn its trends down after the price action last week. London is still more of a sideways pattern but looks ready to fail. Cash market buyers are not buying that much Coffee these days. Vietnam producers have not sold since the Tet holiday but are expected to start selling soon. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Brazil was dry for flowering and initial fruit development. Rains have been falling that should be very beneficial. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.840 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 119.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Dry conditions return for Sunday. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 525 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 137.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 331,430
: Positions :
: 50,201 21,977 96,480 81,096 189,129 91,120 17,203 318,897 324,790: 12,533 6,640
: Changes from: March 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 2,359) :
: 847 2,093 -47 -601 96 2,577 437 2,775 2,579: -416 -220
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 6.6 29.1 24.5 57.1 27.5 5.2 96.2 98.0: 3.8 2.0
: Total Traders: 447 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 167 76 134 118 123 46 23 395 304:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/16/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
142,586 51,983 79,909 13,216 12,458 2,083
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.5% 56.0% 9.3% 8.7% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
142 48 41 11 5 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
29,731 11,038 7,975 9,241 3,037 22,067
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.9% 7.7% 5.6% 6.5% 2.1% 15.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 16 16 9 17 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,290 4,019
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 2.8%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on a weaker Brazilian Real and good Brazilian growing conditions. The US Dollar turned higher and helped create some selling from the funds and other speculators. The chart trends are mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand to complement the traditional buying. Reports indicate that industrial users of Sugar have been the most active consumers. Rains were reported again in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is lking solid for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers, then dry conditions on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1550, 1540, and 1530 May. Support is at 1550, 1530, and 1460 May, and resistance is at 1600, 1620, and 1650 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 427.00 May, and resistance is at 458.00, 468.00, and 477.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,217,394
: Positions :
: 179,689 48,299 234,962 378,886 820,601 313,505 68,906 1,107,041 1,172,768: 110,352 44,626
: Changes from: March 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 11,673) :
: 3,583 6,502 4,181 6,698 2,585 129 686 14,590 13,954: -2,917 -2,281
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 4.0 19.3 31.1 67.4 25.8 5.7 90.9 96.3: 9.1 3.7
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 33 70 74 74 41 17 230 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/16/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
87,730 37,219 76,860 11,527 3,192 1,384
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.4% 87.6% 13.1% 3.6% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
107 29 41 10 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,480 696 1,620 2,297 121 1,511
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.2% 0.8% 1.8% 2.6% 0.1% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 3 11 9 2 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,692 2,346
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.5% 2.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher and chart patterns now look down. The main crop harvest has started in Nigeria and will soon spread to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.133 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2470, 2450, and 2340 May. Support is at 2460, 2430, and 2240 May, with resistance at 2510, 2560, and 2620 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1680, and 1660 May, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 16, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 224,247
: Positions :
: 39,232 21,642 49,618 62,972 134,141 60,512 12,944 212,333 218,345: 11,914 5,902
: Changes from: March 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: 3,792) :
: -1,386 -809 3,093 1,740 1,810 530 -443 3,976 3,650: -184 142
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 9.7 22.1 28.1 59.8 27.0 5.8 94.7 97.4: 5.3 2.6
: Total Traders: 201 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 43 63 44 37 36 19 180 134:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/16/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
260,069 137,294 182,466 20,650 17,887 12,036
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.8% 70.2% 7.9% 6.9% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
126 48 48 9 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,778 583 18,227 3,171 514 26,078
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.1% 0.2% 7.0% 1.2% 0.2% 10.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 3 11 10 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,835 2,278
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.2% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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