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COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher in recovery trading.  The chart trends are mixed on the daily charts.  The passage of the Covid 19 stimulus [package by Congress weakened the UDS Dollar and helped promote better demand ideas.  The weekly export sales report showed solid Cotton demand.  USDA cut ending stocks slightly by cutting production and also domestic demand.  USDA said that the domestic industry was slow to rebound after the Coronavirus kept many at home.  The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus and the strong demand could continue as USDA also cut Brazil production due to reduced planted area this year.  The US Dollar has started to firm recently and could be hurting demand.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 79.50 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,706 bales, from 99,706 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 91 contracts.  USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 212,000 bales this year and 92,200 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 12,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 8660, 8400, and 8280 May, with resistance of 8930, 9010 and 9130 May.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher in range trading.  The tone of the market is mixed.  USDA cut Florida production once again but raised US production due to increased production in California in its production estimates released on Tuesday.  Texas estimates were higher than last year but unchanged last month.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible in Texas and northern Mexico in the wake of the recent hard freeze, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 116.00, 117.00, and 118.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack for Week Ending Feb 20 

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

2/20/2021                                  Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

2/20/2021        2/15/2020   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            246.01           301.65     -18.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.27             6.98     -10.2%

Total                           252.28           308.63     -18.3%

Pack

Bulk                              0.78             3.61     -78.4%

Retail/Institutional              0.77             1.48     -48.4%

Total Pack                        1.55             5.09     -69.7%

Reprocessed                      -1.50            -3.49     -57.0%

Pack from Fruit                   0.04             1.60     -97.3%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.27            -0.04     587.9%

Imports – Foreign                 8.35             4.26      95.8%

Domestic Receipts                 0.66             0.38      73.1%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.03    -100.0%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.44             0.67     -34.1%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.04             0.09     -60.9%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            254.50           307.17     -17.1%

Retail/Institutional              7.03             8.46     -16.9%

Total                           261.53           315.63     -17.1%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          3.81             4.40     -13.4%

Exports                           0.58             0.25     138.1%

Total (Bulk)                      4.40             4.65      -5.4%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          0.93             1.28     -27.5%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               0.93             1.28     -27.5%

Total Movement                    5.33             5.93     -10.2%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            250.11           302.52     -17.3%

Retail/Institutional              6.10             7.18     -15.0%

Ending Inventory                256.21           309.70     -17.3%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

20-Feb-21        15-Feb-20  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            254.09           311.95     -18.5%

Retail/Institutional              5.56             5.82      -4.5%

Total                           259.65           317.77     -18.3%

Pack

Bulk                             35.06            66.30     -47.1%

Retail/Institutional             20.14            25.02     -19.5%

Total Pack                       55.20            91.31     -39.6%

Reprocessed                     -38.43           -46.65     -17.6%

Pack from Fruit                  16.77            44.66     -62.5%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.38            -1.36     -72.1%

Imports – Foreign                84.93            44.61      90.4%

Domestic Receipts                 2.94             7.66     -61.7%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.15             0.18     -18.8%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           4.42            10.00     -55.8%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  1.12             0.74      51.3%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            343.89           393.42     -12.6%

Retail/Institutional             25.70            30.84     -16.7%

Total                           369.59           424.26     -12.9%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             85.98            91.43      -6.0%

Domestic                          7.81             5.43      43.8%

Exports                          93.78            96.86      -3.2%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         19.60            23.66     -17.2%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              19.60            23.66     -17.2%

Total Movement                  113.38           120.52      -5.9%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            250.11           302.52     -17.3%

Retail/Institutional              6.10             7.18     -15.0%

Ending Inventory                256.21           309.70     -17.3%

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher in both markets once again on follow through buying from what seemed to be speculators.  The US Dollar was lower to help the buyers but there was not a lot of news to support futures besides the US Dollar action.  Cash market buyers are not buying that much Coffee these days. Vietnam producers have not sold since the Tet holiday but are expected to start selling soon.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil was dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Rains have been falling that should be very beneficial but it is turning drier again now.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  Africa is also noting good growing conditions.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.836 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 121.97 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 503 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 130.00, 127.00, and 124.00 May, and resistance is at 134.00, 137.00 and 140.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1360 May, and resistance is at 1450, 1460, and 1490 May.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher on a weaker US Dollar.  The chart trends are mostly sideways in both markets.  The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand to complement the traditional buying.  Reports indicate that industrial users of Sugar have been the most active consumers.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is looking solid for the next harvest.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol and has reported less cane production than expected.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1550 May, and resistance is at 1650, 1670, and 1700 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 457.00, 451.00, and 446.00 May, and resistance is at 468.00, 477.00, and 485.00 May.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London both closed a little higher, with New York leading the way on a weaker US Dollar.  Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fical stimulus on their economies.  Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast estimates its main crop production at 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker in recent months.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 3.995 million bags.  ICE said that 31 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,770 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2560, 2530, and 2510 May, with resistance at 2830, 2670, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1770, 1730, and 1680 May, with resistance at 1820, 1830, and 1860 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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