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COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were sharply lower on what appeared to be speculative selling.  The funds were the best sellers of the old crop months.  The export sales report showed another week of solid export sales of Cotton.  Demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  The market feels tight this year and could stay tight into next year.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated showers and near to below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 84.80 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,129 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 32 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 73 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8860 and 8510 May.  Support is at 8910, 8790, and 8580 May, with resistance of 9220, 9410 and 9480 May.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Feb 25 

As of Feb 19. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

Sales                     Purchases

Mar 21          649     6,490   -5,841         10     3,111  -3,101

May 21       32,523    31,116    1,407      7,047     4,798   2,249

Jul 21       36,217    36,174       43      5,815     6,057    -242

Oct 21            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 21       19,692    15,646    4,046     19,470    18,408   1,062

Mar 22        6,383     5,087    1,296      1,670     1,641      29

May 22        2,643     1,625    1,018        654       612      42

Jul 22        6,835     5,096    1,739      1,611     1,575      36

Dec 22        1,519     1,419      100      4,925     4,608     317

Mar 23          176        26      150          0         0       0

May 23           18        18        0          0         0       0

Jul 23           18        18        0        220       220       0

Dec 23            0         0        0        227       227       0

May 24            0         0        0        441       441       0

Total       106,673   102,715    3,958     42,090    41,698     392

Open      Open   Change

Int       Int

Mar 21          190    17,517  -17,327

May 21      121,377   113,551    7,826

Jul 21       57,303    55,322    1,981

Oct 21           19        17        2

Dec 21       53,639    49,272    4,367

Mar 22        6,504     6,083      421

May 22        1,102     1,106       -4

Jul 22        2,614     2,452      162

Dec 22        2,840     2,607      233

Mar 23            0         0        0

May 23            0         0        0

Jul 23            1         1        0

Dec 23            0         0        0

May 24            0         0        0

Total       245,589   247,928   -2,339

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower on what appeared to be speculative selling that was also seen in Chicago and in Cotton.  May futures are now showing mixed trends.  There are reports of light damage to crops in Texas and northeast Mexico from the cold temperatures last week.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 117.00, 118.00, and 120.00 May.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher in both New York and London on ideas of less production from Brazil and as Vietnam producers are not selling after the Tet holiday.  Good weather continues in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry in recent times.  Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial.  Offers have been less from Brazil so far this month.  Central America is also drier for harvesting, but very wet conditions earlier in the year could have hurt production potential.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.762 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 128.34 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 28 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 304 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 141.00 May.  Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 131.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 146.00 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.   Support is at 1430, 1390, and 1370 May, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1550 May.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower and trends started to turn down in London but not in New York.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1670, 1610, and 1580 May, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1810 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 462.00, 451.00 and 448.00 May.  Support is at 461.00, 458.00, and 451.00 May, and resistance is at 485.00, 490.00, and 494.00 May.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher on inflation concerns once again.  The fundamentals appear to be bearish for now but demand is expected to improve as the world economies recover from Covid induced downturns.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast raised its main crop production estimate by 100,000 tons to 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.491 million tons, down 1.3% from last year.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.697 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 162 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2710 and 2920 May.  Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 May, with resistance at 2630, 2670, and 2710 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1760 May.  Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1680 May, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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