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COTTON       

General Comments:  Old crop futures were higher and made new highs for the move.  New crop futures were generally lower on fears of a big increase in planted area and on bull spreading with the old crop futures.  The funds were the best buyers of the old crop months.  Demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  The market feels tight this year and the USDA Outlook Forum showed a tight scenario for next year with ending stocks at just 3.8 million bales.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers later this week and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 87.78 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,326 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 8 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 41 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9340 May.  Support is at 9080, 9000, and 8910 May, with resistance of 9460, 9420 and 9480 May.

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little higher in recovery trading.  May futures are showing the potential for more price gains for the rest of the week.  There are reports of light damage to crops in Texas and northeast Mexico from the cold temperatures last week.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 117.00, and 118.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Feb 12 

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

2/6/2021                                   Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

2/6/2021         2/1/2020   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            240.28           298.13     -19.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.18             6.83      -9.5%

Total                           246.47           304.96     -19.2%

Pack

Bulk                              2.08             3.79     -45.2%

Retail/Institutional              0.96             0.93       3.5%

Total Pack                        3.03             4.71     -35.6%

Reprocessed                      -2.14            -2.96     -27.8%

Pack from Fruit                   0.90             1.76     -48.9%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                  0.07            -0.14     -45.6%

Imports – Foreign                 4.48             3.42      31.0%

Domestic Receipts                 0.28             1.40     -80.0%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.00         NC

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.14             0.44     -68.9%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.05             0.08     -43.7%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            245.24           304.16     -19.4%

Retail/Institutional              7.14             7.76      -8.0%

Total                           252.38           311.92     -19.1%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          4.26             5.24     -18.8%

Exports                           0.56             0.47      18.1%

Total (Bulk)                      4.82             5.71     -15.7%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.10             1.03       6.5%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.10             1.03       6.5%

Total Movement                    5.91             6.75     -12.3%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            240.43           298.45     -19.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.04             6.73     -10.2%

Ending Inventory                246.47           305.17     -19.2%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

6-Feb-21         1-Feb-20  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            254.09           311.95     -18.5%

Retail/Institutional              5.56             5.82      -4.5%

Total                           259.65           317.77     -18.3%

Pack

Bulk                             33.22            58.82     -43.5%

Retail/Institutional             18.14            22.23     -18.4%

Total Pack                       51.36            81.05     -36.6%

Reprocessed                     -34.80           -39.73     -12.4%

Pack from Fruit                  16.56            41.32     -59.9%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.07            -0.94     -92.6%

Imports – Foreign                65.85            32.15     104.8%

Domestic Receipts                 1.66             7.13     -76.7%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.15             0.15      -1.1%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           3.84             9.16     -58.1%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  1.07             0.51     108.5%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            325.01           379.20     -14.3%

Retail/Institutional             23.70            28.05     -15.5%

Total                           348.71           407.25     -14.4%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             77.85            81.94      -5.0%

Domestic                          6.74             4.78      41.0%

Exports                          84.58            86.71      -2.5%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         17.66            21.32     -17.2%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              17.66            21.32     -17.2%

Total Movement                  102.24           108.04      -5.4%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            240.43           298.45     -19.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.04             6.73     -10.2%

Ending Inventory                246.47           305.17     -19.2%

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher in New York on ideas of less offer from Brazil and sharply higher in London as Vietnam producers are not selling after the Tet holiday.  Good weather continues in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry in recent times.  Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial.  Offers have been less from Brazil so far this month.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.757 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 127.04 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 24 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 192 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up 234h objectives of 141.00 May.  Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 146.00 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.   Support is at 1420, 1390, and 1370 May, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1520 May.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York closed higher and London closed lower in consolidation trading.  The trends in both markets are mostly up.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1830 May.  Support is at 1670, 1610, and 1580 May, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1810 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 475.00, 461.00, and 458.00 May, and resistance is at 490.00, 494.00, and 500.00 May.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Up 185.7% in 1H February 

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the first half of February compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.

Center-south mills crushed 487,000 metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 185.7% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 21,000 tons of sugar, up 751.3%, and made 134 million liters of ethanol, an increase of 28.8

With the closure of most mills in the region, which produces about 90% of Brazil’s sugar cane, the output numbers can swing wildly in either direction because the amounts produced are tiny compared with the height of the harvest season.

The production mix for the first half of February was 36.5% sugar to 63.5% ethanol, compared with 16.9% sugar and 83.1% ethanol in the same period a year ago.

In the season from April 1 through Feb. 16, mills in the region crushed 598.1 million tons of cane, up 3.2% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 44.3% to 38.2 million tons, and ethanol output fell 8.5% to 29.7 billion liters.

The production mix for the season through Feb. 16 was 46.2% sugar to 53.8% ethanol, compared with 34.5% sugar and 65.5% ethanol in the same period a year ago.

Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher on inflation concerns once again.  The fundamentals appear to be bearish.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast raised its main crop production estimate by 100,000 tons to 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.  Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.491 million tons, down 1.3% from last year.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.582 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 62 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2370 May, with resistance at 2520, 2540, and 2570 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1710 and 1760 May.  Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1610 May, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1740 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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