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COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher for the week and made a new weekly chart high close once again.  The weekly export sales report on Thursday showed solid demand for US Cotton and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  Production was rated as less in the most recent USDA production reports so supplies could turn tight if the demand remains strong.  Talk is around regarding the planted area for the next crop.  Producers in Texas might decide to plant Sorghum instead of Cotton due to the relatively strong prices in Sorghum.  Chinese demand for Sorghum has been very strong to cause the higher prices.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly isolated showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and much below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 83.77 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,326 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 8460, 8270, and 8230 March, with resistance of 8720, 8780 and 8840 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   294,340

: Positions                                                                               :

:   79,583     9,426    48,901    56,441   219,089    87,296     9,421   272,222   286,837:   22,118     7,503

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      -3,485)         :

:    9,658    -3,209   -17,736       677    19,258       987    -1,540    -6,414    -3,227:    2,929      -258

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     27.0       3.2      16.6      19.2      74.4      29.7       3.2      92.5      97.5:      7.5       2.5

: Total Traders:   293          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      130        41        82        49        62        43        21       255       182:

——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher and is in a recovery mode.  Trends are trying to turn up on the daily and weekly charts.  Freezing temperatures were reported in Florida last week but were not cold enough for a long enough time to damage any crops.  Temperatures are more moderate this week.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops and the harvest is active.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  The rains now are covering Veracruz and immediate areas, but not other growing areas of Mexico.

Overnight News:  Florida should get periods of showers, especially this weekend.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 March, with resistance at 114.00, 117.00, and 120.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    15,323                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    5,814     8,169     1,398       105         0     1,654     1,645         6       882       707     1,996 :

: Changes from:     February 2, 2021                                                                           :

:      256      -167       236        -8       -10       -58       546         6      -142      -119       358 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     37.9      53.3       9.1       0.7       0.0      10.8      10.7       0.0       5.8       4.6      13.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    67                     :

:       18        12         5         .         0         7        13         .        12         7        10 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were a little lower in New York as Brazilian growing conditions improved and a little higher in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling before the Tet holiday.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  However, Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry now.  Rains are now in the forecast that could be very beneficial.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Some of those crops are starting to hit the market but farmers are unhappy with the price and are getting ready for Tet.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.715 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 115.13 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 113.00 March.  Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 126.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1360 and 1470 March.   Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1280 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1390, and 1440 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   326,154

: Positions                                                                               :

:   43,565    23,813    88,013    91,871   193,462    88,963    14,126   312,412   319,413:   13,742     6,741

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:         190)         :

:     -167     2,908      -166    -2,326    -2,987     2,295       286      -364        41:      555       149

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.4       7.3      27.0      28.2      59.3      27.3       4.3      95.8      97.9:      4.2       2.1

: Total Traders:   446          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      173        73       142       119       120        46        20       397       310:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/09/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

152,208       67,415        65,562        16,579     14,873        2,813

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          44.3%         43.1%         10.9%      9.8%          1.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

145            48            39           14          4            11

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                       Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

15,821         27,656        5,541     10,631        4,354          26,731

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

10.4%          18.2%         3.6%      7.0%          2.9%           17.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

22            16            14        12            18              21

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

6,677        4,678

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.4%         3.1%

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower after making new highs for the move.  Ideas of increased demand are still around.  China is done buying for now but other countries have stepped into the void and are buying.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season.  The rains have come late to the region but they are supporting whatever crops are still in the ground now.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out as the government has been very slow to approve export subsidies.  The crop is getting bigger as the country reported increased production over the last couple of months.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 and 1830 May.  Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 May, and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1730 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 451.00, 446.00, and 440.00 May, and resistance is at 461.00, 464.00, and 467.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,355,888

: Positions                                                                               :

:  184,272    44,622   253,247   469,120   937,689   328,673    69,387 1,235,310 1,304,945:  120,577    50,943

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      37,456)         :

:   -8,174     2,073    10,124    30,550    20,994     2,957     5,520    35,458    38,710:    1,998    -1,255

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.6       3.3      18.7      34.6      69.2      24.2       5.1      91.1      96.2:      8.9       3.8

: Total Traders:   255          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       80        34        70        79        82        39        17       233       177:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/09/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

99,660        45,929        88,494        10,206     2,972         1,086

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          46.1%         88.8%         10.2%      3.0%          1.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

105            30            44            7          6            7

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

30,682          892          1,390     2,774        852             1,577

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

30.8%          0.9%          1.4%      2.8%         0.9%            1.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

33            2             7         5            5               7

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

6,016        2,397

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

6.0%         2.4%

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower.  Chart trends are mixed.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports this morning say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.566 million bags.  ICE said that 1 contract was delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1 contract.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2410, 2330, and 2250 May, with resistance at 2490, 2520, and 2540 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1640, 1620, and 1610 May, with resistance at 1680, 1700, and 1730 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   229,657

: Positions                                                                               :

:   36,264    29,354    52,475    64,898   129,470    62,211    12,124   215,849   223,424:   13,808     6,233

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:     -30,841)         :

:   -2,192     3,153   -11,098   -13,676   -19,148    -3,205    -2,888   -30,171   -29,982:     -669      -859

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.8      12.8      22.8      28.3      56.4      27.1       5.3      94.0      97.3:      6.0       2.7

: Total Traders:   209          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       70        45        53        48        37        34        15       180       126:

——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/09/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

278,629       172,249       193,555       16,589     17,693       11,954

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          61.8%         69.5%         6.0%       6.4%          4.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

127            49            46            9          6            9

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

20,416         1,652        16,256     2,289        651            34,270

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

7.3%          0.6%          5.8%      0.8%         0.2%           12.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

26            7             13        12           8               22

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

4,606        2,598

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

1.7%         0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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