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COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were lower on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling.  The overall fundamentals remain positive for prices.  The weekly export sales report was strong again yesterday.  USDA cut production and ending stocks levels in its latest reports and the demand has held together well.  The weekly export sales report on Friday showed strong demand for US Cotton once again, and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well, but the Dollar could be forming a bottom at this time.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers today and late in the weekend.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions after some showers today and near to above temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 76.00 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 79,335 bales, from 78,197 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7990 and 7850 March.  Support is at 7960, 7870, and 7600 March, with resistance of 8150, 8240 and 8260 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 28 

As of Jan 22. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

Sales                     Purchases

Mar 21       22,205    26,892   -4,687      7,179     8,693  -1,514

May 21       25,716    23,345    2,371      3,902     3,805      97

Jul 21       34,735    34,808      -73      6,514     7,031    -517

Oct 21            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 21       13,255    12,569      686     15,815    14,530   1,285

Mar 22        3,250     3,073      177      1,406       947     459

May 22        1,085       976      109        292        46     246

Jul 22        3,833     2,965      868      1,403     1,051     352

Dec 22        1,408     1,364       44      2,330     2,260      70

Jul 23            0         0        0        220       220       0

Dec 23            0         0        0        227       227       0

May 24            0         0        0        441       441       0

Total       105,487   105,992     -505     39,729    39,251     478

Open      Open   Change

Int       Int

Mar 21      114,318   119,650   -5,332

May 21       64,369    59,051    5,318

Jul 21       38,180    34,969    3,211

Oct 21           18        19       -1

Dec 21       30,699    29,223    1,476

Mar 22        2,258     2,017      241

May 22          696       365      331

Jul 22        1,980     1,501      479

Dec 22        2,010     1,727      283

Jul 23            1         1        0

Dec 23            0         0        0

May 24            0         0        0

Total       254,529   248,523    6,006

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower after a day trading inside the previous days range.  Traders were looking at an oversold condition on the charts and bought.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops and the harvest is active.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.  Showers are falling in Brazil now.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 110.00 March.  Support is at 110.00, 107.00, and 104.00 March, with resistance at 117.00, 120.00, and 122.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and in London as offers remained high from Brazil and Vietnam.  The rains in Brazil are falling away from Coffee areas this week.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and dry conditions have returned.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Some of those crops are starting to hit the market as farmers sell before the Tet holiday.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.  The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.618 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 115.89 ct/lb.  Brazil will get isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 March, and resistance is at 127.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1300, 1260, and 1240 March, and resistance is at 1330, 1360, and 1390 March.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower despite news of increased production in Brazil and questions about demand.  Rains were reported again in Brazil and ideas are that the production of cane is increasing with the rains.  It has been raining in south central Brazil.  The rains have come late to the region but they are supporting whatever crops are still in the ground now.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out as the government has been very slow to approve export subsidies.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.  Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.  China has been a strong buyer but ideas are that is has done its buying for the year.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1030 March.  Support is at 1560, 1540, and 1510 March, and resistance is at 1600, 1630, and 1670 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 439.00, 433.00, and 425.00 March, and resistance is at 451.00, 455.00, and 460.00 March.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling.  Arrivals to ports in Ivory Coast have been slow.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages.  Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin.  Origin has ample supplies to sell right now.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US.  Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.  The next grind data is due out over the next couple of weeks.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There is about 100,000 tons ready to ship with no buyers at this time.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.258 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2480, 2460, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2600, 2630, and 2650 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1640 March, with resistance at 1750, 1780, and 1820 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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