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DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Dec 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 23.111 million pounds, in November, 21.5% above the previous
month, and 57.5% below November 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds. public
Nov 30 Oct 31 Nov 30 Oct 31 warehouse
2020 2020 2019 2019 stocks/Nov
pork bellies 23,111 19,025 54,416 45,414
orange juice 620,290 653,093 725,568 757,808
french fries 970,871 1,022,623 954,826 942,518
other potatoes 205,422 218,760 226,101 228,186
chicken rstr (whole) 18,768 24,024 22,837 23,740
ham 74,722 123,324 110,635 173,804
total pork 414,133 447,115 574,840 611,916 370,340
total beef 511,460 500,239 478,261 466,266 500,113
total red meat 960,576 981,715 1,092,584 1,121,646 904,107
total chicken 882,432 911,330 979,326 954,326
total turkey 194,441 376,347 221,996 393,008
total poultry 1,079,449 1,291,160 1,204,341 1,351,399 1,031,957
===============================================================================

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Dec 23
For the week ended Dec 17, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 393.7 24.0 20042.5 18541.3 6513.5 232.0
hrw 172.4 0.0 7068.6 6801.3 1660.9 22.0
srw 67.4 24.0 1534.2 2081.0 496.2 145.0
hrs 77.4 0.0 5518.2 5206.2 1595.7 45.0
white 78.5 0.0 5332.1 3685.8 2632.7 20.0
durum -2.1 0.0 589.6 767.1 128.1 0.0
corn 651.1 0.0 42231.0 17823.2 29342.1 757.0
soybeans 352.8 165.0 54158.3 29085.4 19256.1 496.0
soymeal 223.7 0.0 5749.7 5443.9 3062.7 18.2
soyoil 20.9 0.0 426.8 427.6 246.1 0.6
upland cotton 416.7 67.1 11106.7 11228.2 6118.9 780.8
pima cotton 30.9 0.0 538.4 333.3 223.9 0.7
sorghum 64.3 -68.0 5043.9 1086.9 3305.9 327.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.5 58.9 15.0 12.5
rice 111.5 0.0 1802.5 2104.1 632.7 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher and held higher prices all day. Minneapolis Spring Wheat contracts also closed a little higher for another day. The Russian Wheat export tax is being passed onto farmers by the exporters and farmers are not selling. They apparently have a lot of money right now and do not need to sell. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains even though a few areas got some snow. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions after scattered showers today. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers today, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 603, 597, and 594 March, with resistance at 620, 623, and 629 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 594 and 613 March. Support is at 563, 560, and 556 March, with resistance at 586, 588, and 597 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 588, 596, and 608 March. Support is at 562, 556, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 581, and 589 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher in quiet trading as trading reflected the lack of activity in the domestic cash market. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1227, and 1220 January, with resistance at 1253, 1267, and 1270 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher after trading near unchanged for much of the day. Corn has been a demand based market and the demand overall has improved. Export demand has held strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing but feed demand has been good. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 453 March. Support is at 440, 433, and 430 March, and resistance is at 443, 445, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 335, 330, and 320 March, and resistance is at 341, 343, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on better demand for US Soybeans and despite rains in South America. Soybean Oil closed higher on tight world supplies of vegetable oils A new leg higher appears to be underway on the daily and weekly charts. The weekly export sales report was above expectations and the NOPA crush was very strong last week. US ending stocks estimates now are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as tie goes on. China continues to buy each day but has cancelled and switched some contracts made to unknown destinations. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains have moved to the north. Southern Brazil and Argentina will now turn warm and dry and this will be much more consistent with atypical La Nina pattern. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. A port strike in Argentina has many exporters looking to the US for supplies at this time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1245 January. Support is at 1200, 1180, and 1172 January, and resistance is at 1252, 1260, and 1272 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 408.00, 400.00, and 394.00 January, and resistance is at 419.00, 422.00, and 425.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3970, 3930, and 3900 January, with resistance at 4050, 4080, and 4110 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on reports of increased export demand and tight supplies. Malaysia announced it would impose its export tax again starting next month but futures held strong. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Canola was higher on strong demand ideas and on tight supplies of vegetable oils around the world. Production problems for Soybeans in South America and a strike by workers at ports in Argentina helped Soybean Oil. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 621.00, 614.00, and 601.00 January, with resistance at 643.00, 646.00, and 649.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3520 and 3540 March. Support is at 3370, 3330, and 3280 March, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some precipitation today and late this weekend. Temperatures should average below normal this week and near normal this weekend

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +73 Mar +152 Mar +92 Mar +79 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +76 Mar +95 Mar +75 Jan
February +76 Mar +97 Mar +74 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 21
WINNIPEG, Dec. 21 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 591.40 -30.07 Jan 2021 up 8.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 670.80 35.00 Jan 2021 up 2.00
Basis: Vancouver 685.80 45.00 Jan 2021 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 962.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 917.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 847.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 787.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 965.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 920.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 790.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 930.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 830.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,800.00 +120.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 305.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.061)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 218,676 lots, or 1.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,535 5,570 5,488 5,506 5,490 5,516 26 9,908 9,600
Mar-21 5,579 5,596 5,535 5,566 5,554 5,565 11 5,795 5,945
May-21 5,638 5,638 5,537 5,587 5,572 5,578 6 198,252 77,886
Jul-21 5,564 5,582 5,505 5,532 5,549 5,539 -10 3,511 2,915
Sep-21 5,490 5,520 5,450 5,458 5,486 5,471 -15 1,190 2,212
Nov-21 5,292 5,292 5,250 5,275 5,291 5,264 -27 20 116
Corn
Turnover: 1,012,050 lots, or 26.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,560 2,595 2,555 2,590 2,554 2,574 20 44,635 116,135
Mar-21 2,607 2,637 2,599 2,631 2,603 2,619 16 44,319 82,670
May-21 2,649 2,682 2,638 2,674 2,641 2,661 20 741,243 1,013,119
Jul-21 2,672 2,702 2,664 2,694 2,665 2,684 19 126,705 137,640
Sep-21 2,658 2,684 2,651 2,680 2,652 2,670 18 47,939 189,765
Nov-21 2,594 2,617 2,594 2,608 2,592 2,608 16 7,209 10,080
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,249,815 lots, or 74.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,246 3,283 3,206 3,244 3,241 3,249 8 57,686 68,807
Mar-21 3,272 3,325 3,247 3,288 3,283 3,289 6 57,595 34,226
May-21 3,320 3,362 3,281 3,321 3,308 3,326 18 1,500,794 1,607,387
Jul-21 3,296 3,342 3,262 3,305 3,292 3,305 13 335,562 52,215
Aug-21 3,349 3,392 3,313 3,357 3,344 3,355 11 41,471 12,240
Sep-21 3,360 3,405 3,323 3,369 3,352 3,366 14 256,275 485,002
Nov-21 3,321 3,357 3,300 3,317 3,314 3,325 11 102 802
Dec-21 3,272 3,312 3,272 3,296 3,280 3,292 12 330 580
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,266,299 lots, or 8.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 6,906 7,018 6,900 7,006 6,986 6,966 -20 24,067 26,137
Feb-21 7,070 7,130 6,998 7,130 7,114 7,084 -30 245,803 56,863
Mar-21 6,998 7,068 6,924 7,060 7,052 7,032 -20 87,499 8,481
Apr-21 6,838 6,886 6,736 6,874 6,860 6,824 -36 91,861 3,173
May-21 6,650 6,710 6,556 6,686 6,708 6,636 -72 782,833 319,293
Jun-21 6,608 6,608 6,522 6,560 6,700 6,562 -138 3 7
Jul-21 6,362 6,380 6,292 6,380 6,398 6,322 -76 24,504 30
Aug-21 – – – 6,430 6,430 6,430 0 0 4
Sep-21 6,218 6,254 6,132 6,224 6,242 6,194 -48 9,722 26,919
Oct-21 6,180 6,180 6,180 6,180 6,206 6,180 -26 1 17
Nov-21 6,142 6,186 6,142 6,142 6,216 6,152 -64 6 31
Dec-21 – – – 6,228 6,228 6,228 0 0 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 879,126 lots, or 66.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 8,246 8,458 8,246 8,446 8,326 8,344 18 64,467 61,595
Mar-21 7,930 8,074 7,896 8,074 7,964 7,996 32 4,990 8,871
May-21 7,560 7,680 7,516 7,662 7,638 7,598 -40 669,061 488,258
Jul-21 7,238 7,372 7,234 7,344 7,358 7,304 -54 105,476 20,047
Aug-21 7,142 7,300 7,142 7,282 7,302 7,268 -34 18,243 2,607
Sep-21 7,156 7,256 7,132 7,226 7,224 7,190 -34 16,883 49,565
Nov-21 7,100 7,230 7,100 7,194 7,174 7,178 4 5 71
Dec-21 7,144 7,144 7,144 7,144 7,180 7,144 -36 1 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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