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DJ Analysts’ Estimates for December USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Dec 1 100.0 99.1- 100.8
Placed in Nov 91.5 85.5- 95.2
Marketed in Nov 98.1 97.6- 102.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Dec 1 in Nov in Nov
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.4 87.4 98.0
Allendale Inc. 100.6 95.2 98.2
HedgersEdge 99.1 85.5 98.3
Linn Group 100.0 94.6 102.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.4 93.1 97.7
NFC Markets 99.7 89.6 98.2
Texas A&M Extension 100.8 95.0 97.6
U.S. Commodities 99.6 89.0 98.0
Write to Donna Huneke at DJSurvey@dowjones.com

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 17
For the week ended Dec 10, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 540.4 21.0 19648.8 17826.6 6486.1 208.0
hrw 159.0 0.0 6896.1 6575.4 1644.8 22.0
srw 43.2 21.0 1466.7 2026.4 438.3 121.0
hrs 197.7 0.0 5440.8 5006.2 1595.2 45.0
white 134.9 0.0 5253.5 3517.9 2649.2 20.0
durum 5.5 0.0 591.7 700.7 158.6 0.0
corn 1924.5 10.0 41579.8 17198.4 29526.6 757.0
soybeans 922.3 94.0 53828.9 28425.1 21421.8 331.0
soymeal 261.2 0.0 5526.0 5306.0 3153.1 18.1
soyoil 7.6 0.0 405.9 390.2 248.8 0.6
upland cotton 420.9 13.8 10689.9 11093.2 5983.3 713.7
pima cotton 7.5 0.0 507.5 313.9 207.0 0.7
sorghum 325.4 68.0 4979.6 1043.3 3372.2 395.0
barley -12.3 12.5 30.5 58.9 16.0 12.5
rice 166.3 0.0 1690.9 2041.8 599.8 0.0
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little lower after a wide ranging session that saw new highs and lows for the week made. Futures have rallied in the last few days in reaction to news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxes of $30.00 per ton on Wheat along with taxes on some other agricultural products. News that Egypt paid its highest price in five years for Romanian and Ukrainian Wheat earlier this week was also bullish. All of this now appears to be part of the futures price. US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve slightly with the close price relationships although they are still not huge. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 590, 584, and 572 March, with resistance at 608, 610, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 556, 553, and 545 March, with resistance at 573, 576, and 586 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 553, 548, and 543 March, and resistance is at 563, 565, and 574 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher with speculators moving from January to March positions. Directional trading was quiet. Trading volumes were good because of the roll yesterday, but have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1227, 1221, and 1220 January, with resistance at 1240, 1250, and 1252 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher on what appeared to be partly industry user buying. Corn is being supported by firming basis levels in the US and South America. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in parts of Brazil in the past week and more is in the forecasts for the coming two weeks. No one will see showers or rains each day, but just about everyone should get at least some precipitation over the two week period. Southern Brazil and Argentina should get important rains today, then drier weather again. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry. The current drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 418, and 415 March, and resistance is at 430, 436, and 439 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 330, 330, and 325 March, and resistance is at 339, 343, and 345 March.

DJ US Ethanol Inventories Climb to Nearly 23M Barrels — Market Talk
11:05 ET – US ethanol inventories have jumped again this week, rising 867,000 barrels to a total of 22.95M barrels, according to EIA data. That’s the highest inventories have been since late May, fueled higher by the accumulating Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US. Yesterday, 198,000 new coronavirus cases were reported, setting a record for Covid-19 hospitalizations for the 10th day in a row. The upswing in infections is keeping drivers off of the road and cutting into fuel consumption. Meanwhile, ethanol production falls by 34,000 barrels a day today to 957,000 barrels a day. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower and products closed higher as cash markets are firm and despite better rains in South America and the lack of Chinese demand for US Soybeans. US and South American cash markets have been firming despite the sideways action of late in futures. The NOPA crush report was called bullish for Soybeans and both products. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled some contracts made to unknown destinations again in the past week. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains have moved to the north to help out producers in central and northern Brazil. Other rains are being seen in the south over the next couple of days, then drier conditions are forecast. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1207, 1209, and 1245 January. Support is at 1172, 1168, and 1162 January, and resistance is at 1200, 1220, and 1236 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 401.00 January. Support is at 390.00, 385.00, and 381.00 January, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3860, 3830, and 3810 January, with resistance at 3960, 3990, and 4020 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on the price action in Chicago and petroleum futures. The market was supported by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. MPOB released its monthly supply and demand report last week and noted less production. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia in part due to the difficulty of sourcing plantation workers due to the Coronavirus. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Canola was higher. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 632.00 and 640.00 January. Support is at 599.00, 593.00, and 589.00 January, with resistance at 607.00, 610.00, and 613.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3390, 3340, and 3300 February, with resistance at 3500, 3530, and 3560 February.

DJ Malaysia’s 2020 Biodiesel Production Likely to Slide on Weak Demand — Market Talk
0156 GMT – Malaysia’s biodiesel production in 2020 is expected to drop 16% to 1.25 billion liters on a decrease in international and domestic demand for diesel fuel as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. The Malaysian government has pushed back the implementation of a policy for biodiesel to make up 20% of fuel to mid-2021. The USDA notes that Malaysia’s biodiesel exports in 2020 are projected at 345 million liters, a 48% plunge compared to the record prior year. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week and some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +71 Mar +150 Mar +92 Mar +72 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +72 Mar +95 Mar +74 Jan
February +75 Mar +97 Mar +73 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 16
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Dec. 16, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 569.30 -32.40 Jan 21 up 5.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 647.90 45.00 Jan 21 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver 657.90 55.00 Jan 21 up 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 937.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 922.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 767.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 925.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 892.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 770.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 915.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 815.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 287.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.033)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 203,742 lots, or 10.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,222 5,348 5,210 5,272 5,224 5,282 58 96,058 27,988
Mar-21 5,243 5,347 5,230 5,290 5,250 5,295 45 4,482 4,056
May-21 5,229 5,324 5,215 5,289 5,238 5,284 46 101,368 68,869
Jul-21 5,217 5,314 5,217 5,292 5,206 5,276 70 1,117 3,214
Sep-21 5,172 5,248 5,170 5,230 5,176 5,223 47 702 2,539
Nov-21 5,129 5,167 5,129 5,136 5,116 5,145 29 15 77
Corn
Turnover: 664,547 lots, or 17.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,544 2,547 2,526 2,540 2,521 2,535 14 62,823 167,193
Mar-21 2,572 2,581 2,567 2,577 2,557 2,574 17 47,099 56,262
May-21 2,602 2,615 2,598 2,613 2,587 2,607 20 421,895 1,010,881
Jul-21 2,614 2,631 2,612 2,627 2,598 2,621 23 93,819 131,382
Sep-21 2,618 2,634 2,615 2,631 2,605 2,626 21 30,595 166,309
Nov-21 2,566 2,580 2,558 2,569 2,558 2,571 13 8,316 8,962
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,624,627 lots, or 51.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,095 3,111 3,081 3,099 3,068 3,095 27 141,775 179,428
Mar-21 3,110 3,141 3,109 3,128 3,104 3,125 21 44,498 29,613
May-21 3,156 3,168 3,132 3,149 3,132 3,150 18 1,069,280 1,611,333
Jul-21 3,135 3,146 3,104 3,126 3,109 3,129 20 233,187 57,888
Aug-21 3,186 3,194 3,155 3,178 3,163 3,183 20 19,369 11,915
Sep-21 3,198 3,208 3,178 3,191 3,176 3,195 19 116,365 460,941
Nov-21 3,176 3,178 3,158 3,168 3,151 3,167 16 119 1,127
Dec-21 3,162 3,163 3,136 3,149 3,132 3,156 24 34 112
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,111,398 lots, or 75.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 7,004 7,030 6,950 6,976 6,972 6,996 24 58,550 71,748
Feb-21 7,096 7,112 7,042 7,064 7,036 7,082 46 269,406 55,007
Mar-21 6,996 7,018 6,950 6,984 6,968 6,990 22 78,497 7,384
Apr-21 6,850 6,880 6,796 6,828 6,794 6,842 48 96,040 2,298
May-21 6,696 6,726 6,640 6,672 6,662 6,682 20 599,257 344,958
Jun-21 6,618 6,618 6,594 6,594 6,590 6,602 12 4 6
Jul-21 – – – 6,386 6,386 6,386 0 0 11
Aug-21 – – – 6,338 6,338 6,338 0 0 4
Sep-21 6,270 6,294 6,216 6,250 6,202 6,254 52 9,621 23,847
Oct-21 6,208 6,224 6,208 6,218 6,230 6,218 -12 8 23
Nov-21 6,158 6,270 6,158 6,270 6,206 6,204 -2 3 25
Dec-21 6,164 6,202 6,164 6,168 6,154 6,170 16 12 5
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 742,709 lots, or 56.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 8,074 8,166 8,054 8,148 8,028 8,112 84 102,104 163,139
Mar-21 7,868 7,944 7,822 7,904 7,820 7,882 62 3,966 8,755
May-21 7,560 7,614 7,524 7,572 7,518 7,566 48 477,284 458,231
Jul-21 7,336 7,336 7,254 7,300 7,236 7,292 56 121,355 20,351
Aug-21 7,240 7,262 7,192 7,232 7,170 7,238 68 28,352 2,415
Sep-21 7,182 7,214 7,144 7,182 7,128 7,180 52 9,648 48,764
Nov-21 – – – 7,064 7,064 7,064 0 0 35
Dec-21 – – – 7,000 7,000 7,000 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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