no comments
0
0

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for December USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Dec 1 100.0 99.1- 100.8
Placed in Nov 91.5 85.5- 95.2
Marketed in Nov 98.1 97.6- 102.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Dec 1 in Nov in Nov
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.4 87.4 98.0
Allendale Inc. 100.6 95.2 98.2
HedgersEdge 99.1 85.5 98.3
Linn Group 100.0 94.6 102.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.4 93.1 97.7
NFC Markets 99.7 89.6 98.2
Texas A&M Extension 100.8 95.0 97.6
U.S. Commodities 99.6 89.0 98.0
Write to Donna Huneke at DJSurvey@dowjones.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher after holding support on the charts. Futures have rallied in the last few days in reaction to news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxes of $30.00 per ton on Wheat along with taxes on some other agricultural products. News that Egypt paid its highest price in five years for Romanian and Ukrainian Wheat was also bullish. Speculators were the best buyers. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve slightly with the close price relationships although they are still not huge. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 639 March. Support is at 594, 584, and 572 March, with resistance at 610, 622, and 623 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 602 March. Support is at 557, 553, and 545 March, with resistance at 576, 586, and 588 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 553, 548, and 543 March, and resistance is at 565, 574, and 581 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower with speculators moving from January to March positions. Trading volumes were good because of the roll yesterday, but have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1221, 1220, and 1215 January, with resistance at 1240, 1250, and 1252 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 16
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.07 10.90 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.76 11.28 0.00
Brokens 10.83 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged while Oats moved lower for the first time in a couple of weeks. Corn is being supported by firming basis levels in the US and South America. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week and more is in the forecasts for the coming two weeks. No one will see showers or rains each day, but just about everyone should get at least some precipitation over the two week period. Southern Brazil and Argentina should get important rains today, then drier weather again. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry. The current drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 428, 430, and 436 March. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 330, 330, and 325 March, and resistance is at 335, 343, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher as cash markets are firm and despite better rains in South America and the lack of Chinese demand for US Soybeans. US and South American cash markets have been firming despite the sideways action of late in futures. The NOPA crush report was called bullish for Soybeans and both products. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled some contracts made to unknown destinations again in the past week. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains have moved to the north to help out producers in central and northern Brazil. Other rains are being seen in the south over the next couple of days, then drier conditions are forecast. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1168, 1152, and 1148 January, and resistance is at 1186, 1200, and 1220 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 392.00 and 401.00 January. Support is at 381.00, 376.00, and 366.00 January, and resistance is at 392.00, 394.00, and 401.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3830, 3810, and 3790 January, with resistance at 3900, 3920, and 3960 January.

NOPA November soy crush at 181.018 million bushels, third largest ever
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Dec 15 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean processors notched their third largest monthly crush on record in November, while soymeal exports surged to the highest for any month in nearly eight years, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on Tuesday.
NOPA said its members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 181.018 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from a record 185.245 million bushels in October but up from 164.909 million bushels in November 2019.
It was the largest November crush on record, eclipsing the previous mark of 166.959 million bushels set in November 2018. It was also the third largest monthly crush ever, behind only October 2020 and March 2020.
Analysts, on average, had been expecting a November crush of 180.025 million bushels, according to estimates from 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 172.000 million to 192.000 million bushels, with a median of 179.182 million bushels. (Full Story)
NOPA pegged soyoil supplies among its members at the end of November at a four-month high of 1.558 billion lbs, up from 1.487 billion lbs at the end of October and 1.448 billion lbs at the end of November 2019.
The oil stocks were slightly above the average trade forecast of 1.548 billion lbs, based on estimates gathered from eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.401 billion to 1.685 billion lbs, with a median of 1.550 billion.
Soymeal exports in November jumped to 1,081,653 tons, the most for a single month since January 2013, according to NOPA data. That was up from 945,835 tons in October and 868,769 tons in November last year.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on the price action in Chicago and petroleum futures. The market was supported by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. MPOB released its monthly supply and demand report last week and noted less production. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia in part due to the difficulty of sourcing plantation workers due to the Coronavirus. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Canola was higher with Chicago. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 632.00 an 640.00 January. Support is at 593.00, 589.00, and 584.00 January, with resistance at 601.00, 604.00, and 607.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3390, 3340, and 3300 February, with resistance at 3470, 3350, and 3530 February.

DJ Malaysia December 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Up 9.5%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the December 1-15 period are estimated up 9.5% on month at 725,380 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
December 1-15 November 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 171,295 239,640
RBD Palm Oil 82,095 60,030
RBD Palm Stearin 36,084 48,885
Crude Palm Oil 179,560 163,310
Total* 725,380 662,376
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week and some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +65 Mar +146 Dec +92 Mar +68 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +69 Mar +95 Mar +73 Jan
February +76 Mar +97 Mar +73 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 15
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Dec. 15, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 563.90 -32.40 Jan 21 up 2.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 646.70 45.00 Jan 21 up 5.40
Basis: Vancouver 656.70 55.00 Jan 21 up 5.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 937.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 917.50 — Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 880.00 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 827.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 767.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 940.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 920.00 — Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 882.50 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 830.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 770.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 815.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,650.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 288.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.049)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 180,375 lots, or 9.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,249 5,270 5,185 5,207 5,264 5,224 -40 100,219 33,836
Mar-21 5,277 5,302 5,222 5,243 5,289 5,250 -39 3,604 4,062
May-21 5,242 5,277 5,210 5,230 5,266 5,238 -28 73,537 67,578
Jul-21 5,236 5,249 5,189 5,220 5,271 5,206 -65 1,821 3,137
Sep-21 5,199 5,218 5,156 5,184 5,220 5,176 -44 1,150 2,545
Nov-21 5,099 5,133 5,098 5,124 5,101 5,116 15 44 72
Corn
Turnover: 717,465 lots, or 18.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,507 2,540 2,505 2,539 2,505 2,521 16 65,228 181,215
Mar-21 2,538 2,575 2,536 2,572 2,536 2,557 21 35,680 45,194
May-21 2,569 2,607 2,564 2,605 2,566 2,587 21 511,740 1,010,664
Jul-21 2,579 2,618 2,578 2,615 2,579 2,598 19 70,121 131,080
Sep-21 2,588 2,622 2,587 2,618 2,588 2,605 17 29,774 163,256
Nov-21 2,550 2,567 2,545 2,564 2,543 2,558 15 4,922 8,452
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,424,526 lots, or 44.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,042 3,093 3,038 3,084 3,032 3,068 36 137,099 215,795
Mar-21 3,084 3,123 3,068 3,117 3,063 3,104 41 49,365 30,119
May-21 3,100 3,151 3,098 3,143 3,095 3,132 37 945,698 1,624,955
Jul-21 3,086 3,129 3,082 3,127 3,086 3,109 23 156,760 57,372
Aug-21 3,140 3,180 3,134 3,178 3,144 3,163 19 10,483 12,096
Sep-21 3,154 3,191 3,146 3,187 3,151 3,176 25 124,617 456,174
Nov-21 3,138 3,165 3,129 3,164 3,134 3,151 17 431 1,140
Dec-21 3,125 3,141 3,123 3,139 3,130 3,132 2 73 106
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,162,031 lots, or 78.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 6,922 7,040 6,912 7,030 6,932 6,972 40 82,945 85,177
Feb-21 6,998 7,126 6,988 7,122 7,026 7,036 10 275,276 56,682
Mar-21 6,898 7,032 6,898 7,022 6,948 6,968 20 37,115 6,773
Apr-21 6,760 6,884 6,742 6,856 6,752 6,794 42 85,030 2,237
May-21 6,594 6,740 6,580 6,720 6,610 6,662 52 669,406 344,309
Jun-21 6,620 6,646 6,484 6,630 6,458 6,590 132 9 6
Jul-21 6,316 6,474 6,316 6,474 6,282 6,386 104 3 11
Aug-21 6,296 6,380 6,296 6,380 6,256 6,338 82 2 4
Sep-21 6,160 6,272 6,136 6,260 6,168 6,202 34 12,238 22,112
Oct-21 6,198 6,320 6,198 6,206 6,132 6,230 98 4 17
Nov-21 6,200 6,212 6,200 6,212 6,108 6,206 98 2 24
Dec-21 6,154 6,154 6,154 6,154 6,066 6,154 88 1 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 815,240 lots, or 6.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 7,972 8,084 7,964 8,076 7,994 8,028 34 115,648 169,909
Mar-21 7,782 7,886 7,752 7,846 7,796 7,820 24 2,070 8,615
May-21 7,480 7,584 7,444 7,558 7,498 7,518 20 469,692 451,847
Jul-21 7,186 7,290 7,152 7,288 7,196 7,236 40 150,486 20,436
Aug-21 7,126 7,230 7,096 7,218 7,122 7,170 48 67,988 2,420
Sep-21 7,090 7,194 7,058 7,192 7,106 7,128 22 9,349 48,604
Nov-21 7,058 7,112 7,054 7,112 7,046 7,064 18 7 35
Dec-21 – – – 7,000 7,000 7,000 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

Spread the love
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •