General Comments: Wheat markets were higher in reaction to the rallies in Corn and Soybeans. Wheat was a follower on the rally as there was nothing real bullish noted in the USDA reports for Wheat yesterday. Trends are up on the daily charts as futures made key reversals in all three markets, but remain down on the weekly charts. USDA said that the quarterly stocks and the planted area were higher than trade expectations. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain that has been falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold. Wheat conditions are improved overall after a rough start to the crop.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 643 and 669 May. Support is at 617, 609, and 599 May, with resistance at 642, 658, and 663 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 588 and 607 May. Support is at 574, 569, and 560 May, with resistance at 595, 603, and 610 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 633 and 671 May. Support is at 606, 598, and 591 May, and resistance is at 630, 632, and 640 May.
General Comments: Rice was lower in nearby months but higher in new crop months. The USDA report dictated the price action and the spread changes. Planted area estimates were on the low side of expectations while the quarterly stocks report showed big supplies with merchants and big supplies overall. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is up to half done in Louisiana. Mississippi is about to start.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1312, 1307, and 1300 May, with resistance at 1330, 1345, and 1350 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed sharply higher to limit up in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed that inventories were a little less than expected, implying greater than expected feed use. USDA also showed significantly less planting intentions by farmers for Corn than the trade had expected. It was the latter report that really sent the market up to or close to limit up levels. Oats were higher, Traders are still concerned that China might not buy more US Corn because the political talks were not productive and the South American harvest is just down the road. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers are able to harvest much of the Soybeans area and plant much of the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal. Argentina has seen a general rain in the last week and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also in a better place on crop conditions. More rain is in the forecast for these areas in the next week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 577 and 607 May. Support is at 559, 552, and 547 May, and resistance is at 568, 572, and 578 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 391 and 409 May. Support is at 375, 373, and 367 May, and resistance is at 384, 386, and 387 May.
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply higher to limit up and Soybean Meal closed higher. Soybean Oil was sharply higher. The rally came in reaction to the USDA reports that showed quarterly stocks about as expected but planting intentions at levels much less than expected by the trade. Futures price trends turned up in Soybeans and Soybean Meal and are mixed in Soybean Oil. Higher prices for Soybeans appear to be likely. Selling has come in recent sessions on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was worse last week but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1453, 1460, and 1472 May. Support is at 1418, 1391, and 1365 May, and resistance is at 1446, 1460, and 1465 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 429.00 May. Support is at 410.00, 407.00, and 401.00 May, and resistance is at 424.00, 427.00, and 434.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5120, 5090, and 5020 May, with resistance at 5300, 5410, and 5570 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on strong demand ideas as the March monthly data came in strong. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies should start to seasonally increase. Private sources reported a solid export pace so far this month. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola was limit up in reaction to the USDA reports that showed much less area in the planting intentions than the market had expected. Supplies of Canola remain tight. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets but the weather is better now and both are looking for new triggers to promote more buying.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 746.00, 736.00, and 721.00 May, with resistance at 762.00, 770.00, and 781.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3390 June. Support is at 3500, 3470, and 3420 June, with resistance at 3670, 3690, and 3760 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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