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WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were lower and trends turned down in HRW.  HRW and SRW were the big losers on the day as some rain is now in the forecast for the Great Plains and Midwest in the next few days.  Ideas are that forecasts for rain in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat.  The threat of Winterkill production losses in the western Great Plains now appears to be part of the price.  Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.  Egypt bought 360,000 tons of Romanian Wheat yesterday.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 637, 632, and 626 May, with resistance at 658, 663, and 669 May.  Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 589 and 563 May.  Support is at 600, 592, and 579 May, with resistance at 620, 623, and 628 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 629, 620, and 605 May, and resistance is at 644, 652, and 659 May.

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was lower once again on what appeared to be light volume speculative selling.  Futures are searching for news to ignite another rally or to prompt further selling.  The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas.  Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1286, 1270, and 1252 May.  Support is at 1292, 1290, and 1243 May, with resistance at 1317, 1321, and 1325 May.

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were higher after holding support on the daily charts.  The move came despite forecasts for increased production in Brazil from Conab.  The export sales report was positive and sales were at the top end of trade estimates.  Corn needs some bullish news to send prices sharply higher, and increased demand could be the news if the demand starts to appear.  Export demand has started to fall as the South America main crop is expected to be harvested soon.  The big export crop is the Winter Corn crop which is still being planted.  Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn either way.  Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high.  It is raining in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation.  The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal.  Argentina is now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed.  Southern Brazil got showers.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 531, 529, and 523 May, and resistance is at 546, 556, and 558 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 412 May.  Support is at 381, 373, and 368 May, and resistance is at 390, 394, and 400 May.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was lower.  Soybean Oil rallied on supply and demand concerns and on sharply higher prices for Palm Oil and Canola.  Soybean Meal was lower along with Chinese Meal prices due to a new outbreak of the Swine Flu there.  Forecasts for some rains to appear in Argentina at the end of next week created some of the selling interest.  Demand was improved yesterday in the weekly export data and the US has now sold over 98% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year.  The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America.  US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1401, 1378, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1432, 1446, and 1460 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 396.00 and 368.00 May.   Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 377.00 May, and resistance is at 414.00, 418.00, and 425.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 5360, 5220, and 5090 May, with resistance at 5540, 5600, and 5660 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher again yesterday on ideas of tight supplies.  Ending stocks were down to 1.3 million tons due to a five year low in production for the month.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now.  Canola closed higher along with Chicago and on strong demand ideas.  Canola still got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.  Worries about South American production coming to market were negative.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 786.00, 769.00, and 748.00 May, with resistance at 804.00, 808.00, and 814.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4030 and 4250 May.  Support is at 3940, 3830, and 3810 May, with resistance at 4070, 4130, and 4190 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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