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WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were lower on a stronger US Dollar.  The US is still having problems selling Wheat into the world market and the stronger Dollar just adds to the list of problems.  Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March due to changes in the Russian tax regime.  Russia will now index its taxes to the price paid.  Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there have not been selling due to weaker internal prices caused by the new taxes.  Great Plains weather has improved with snow except for some southern areas that remain dry.  It will be very cold in growing areas for the next week or more.  Enough sow is in the forecast to protect most crops.  Canada is also better although it remains drier than normal, and some rain and snow has fallen in southern Russia.  It remains much drier than normal in Argentina.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers tofay and tomorrow, then dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 595, 582, and 576 March.  Support is at 629, 626, and 624 March, with resistance at 653, 664, and 673 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 615, 610, and 606 March, with resistance at 631, 644, and 649 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 617, 612, and 605 March, and resistance is at 629, 640, and 644 March.

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was mixed, with nearby months a little lower and new crop months slightly higher.  It was a consolidation day after the big move lower the previous day.  Short term trends have turned down in this market.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are down with no objectives.  Support is at 1297, 1285, and 1284 March, with resistance at 1318, 1338, and 1350 March.

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments:  Corn was a little lower in consolidation trading, but anticipation of reduced ending stocks estimates in the WASDE estimates to be released on Tuesday kept a bid underneath the market.  Additional Chinese demand has not yet developed this week but is expected soon.  Big demand from China was the feature last week as the country booked at least 5.0 million tons of US Corn.  It was a big week for Corn sales for anybody as demonstrated in the weekly export sales report, bt also mostly known due to th sales announcements on the daily reporting system.  There is talk that China is looking for another 2.0 million tons.  Traditional buyers are also in the market as Mexico has been a buyer.  The export sales report was very strong last week.  Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week.  Southern Brazil and Argentina also got some excessive rain.  Drier conditions are forecast for this weekend and next week.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the delayed planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.

Overnight News:  Unknown destinations bought 101,600 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 537, 529, and 525 March, and resistance is at 558, 562, and 568 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 341, 339, and 335 March, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 368 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher in anticipation of bullish WASDE estimates that will be released on Tuesday.  Soybean Meal was lower on spreads against Soybean Oil.  It was mostly a consolidation day.  The pending Brazil harvest will kill demand for US Soybeans once it hits the market, but the harvest pace remains slow.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but will shift all buying to South America once Soybeans become available there.  Soybeans are now starting to be harvested in Brazil.  Very little has been done so far and the progress might be slow due to the delayed planting earlier this year caused by dry conditions.  Now it is raining too much for harvesting and there are some concerns that the quality could suffer.  Many areas had problems with the weather during different parts of the growing season, so yield report estimates have been a little less.  There is little sign the US price has rationed demand.  Export demand reports from USDA were weaker last week for old crop Soybeans, but very strong for new crop Soybeans.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1343, 1336, and 1298 March, and resistance is at 1383, 1395, and 1403 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 431.00, 423.00, and 421.00 March, and resistance is at 437.00, 444.00, and 451.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4400, 4320, and 4190 March, with resistance at 4560, 4600, and 4630 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil was higher on ideas of weaker production.  Ideas are that the export demand could recover some in February.  The market had been supported by ideas of tight supplies in Malaysia.  Indonesia has increased its export taxes in the last week.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  Canola was mostly higher along with Malaysia and Chicago.  Farmers sold at harvest and demand since then has been very strong.  Ideas are that Canada is starting to run low on supplies of Canola.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 688.00, 680.00, and 674.00 March, with resistance at 710.00, 720.00, and 724.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3200, 3180, and 3120 April, with resistance at 3390, 3500, and 3530 April.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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