WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on the lack of new business and forecast for some beneficial precipitation for the Great Plains. There are hopes for additional demand for US Wheat. Many think China could be a buyer after buying a lot of US Corn. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia was reported to be raising its export taxes in mid March but lately has walked those ideas back and now suggest that the taxes imposed already are enough to control the market. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market. Many world buyers such as Egypt have indicated that they still intend to buy Russian Wheat even with the new taxes, so the overall Wheat situation might not change that much even if Russia decides to move ahead with the new taxes in the end. Northern weather has improved with snow in the Great Plains except for some southern areas that remain dry. Canada is also better, and some rain and snow has fallen in southern Russia. It remains much drier than normal in Argentina.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal early and near to above normal late.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 651, 634, and 629 March, with resistance at 673, 681, and 692 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 630, 618, and 610 March, with resistance at 649, 660, and 668 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 627, 619, and 612 March, and resistance is at 644, 656, and 664 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher once again in light volume trading. Ideas are that the cash market fundamentals remain negative, but the market does not work lower. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Some traders are looking ahead to next year and are wondering how much Rice will get planted. Our ideas are that a normal crop will get planted as Rice prices compare favorably with Corn, Cotton, and Soybeans.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers today and late this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1357 and 1387 March. Support is at 1327, 1318, and 1317 March, with resistance at 1350, 1362, and 1374 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little high and Oats were lower on ideas that China had bought its needs for now in the US Corn market. China has bought 2.0 million tons of US Corn this week. Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week. Southern Brazil and Argentina also got some very beneficial rain. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the spread out planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. Very little if any of this crop will be exported as it is usually the Winter crop that is exported.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 1.700 million tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 213,600 tons of US Corn. Ethanol production was 933,000 barrels per day in the week ending January 22, from 945,000 the previous week and 1,029 million barrels per day last year. Ethanol production used an estimated 96.2 million bushels of corn, from 97.4 million the previous week and 102.7 million in the previous year. Marketing year Corn use for Ethanol production is 2.011 billion bushels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 525, 515, and 508 March, and resistance is at 534, 542, and 545 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 346, 341, and 339 March, and resistance is at 360, 368, and 370 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly higher although deferred months of Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower. China appeared as a buyer of US Soybeans yesterday and bought two cargoes. Soybeans are being harvested in Brazil, but progress is very slow. Very little has been done so far and the progress might be slow due to the spread out planting earlier this year caused by dry conditions. Many areas had problems with the weather during different parts of the growing season, so yield report estimates have been a little less. Overall production is still expected to be very strong due to increased planted area. It is raining now in Brazil and the rain is slowing the progress even more. There is little sign the US price has rationed demand. Export demand reports from USDA were very strong last week. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1352, 1342, and 1298 March, and resistance is at 1403, 1436, and 1448 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 444.00, 451.00, and 464.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4420 and 4680 March. Support is at 4400, 4370, and 4320 March, with resistance at 4550, 4580, and 4610 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Exports have been running at 44% less than last month so far, and the trend is expected to continue for the balance of the month and into February. The market had been supported by ideas of tight supplies. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Canola was higher along with Chicago. It made new contract highs. Ideas of tight supplies have kept Canola prices very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 705.00, 690.00, and 680.00 March, with resistance at 720.00, 723.00, and 726.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3430 and 3570 April. Support is at 3290, 3220, and 3200 April, with resistance at 3420, 3480, and 3570 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow over the coming weekend, otherwise mostly dry or light precipitation. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
| US Gulf Cash Basis | ||||||
| Corn | HRW | SRW | Soybeans | Soybean Meal | Soybean Oil | |
| January | +79 Mar | +158 Mar | +110 Mar | +67 Mar | +30 Mar | +550 Mar |
| February | +72 Mar | +97 Mar | +68 Mar | |||
| March | +71 Mar | +95 Mar | +72 Mar | |||
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 27
WINNIPEG–Jan. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.=
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 658.20 -35.00 Mar 2021 up 14.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 713.20 35.00 May 2021 up 14.30
Basis: Vancouver 743.20 65.00 May 2021 up 14.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 209,177 lots, or 11.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 5,685 5,718 5,564 5,663 5,653 5,649 -4 8,717 5,982
May-21 5,677 5,726 5,583 5,673 5,663 5,661 -2 197,761 80,182
Jul-21 5,600 5,656 5,527 5,606 5,605 5,608 3 65 721
Sep-21 5,492 5,552 5,426 5,490 5,501 5,497 -4 2,518 5,129
Nov-21 5,344 5,376 5,344 5,375 5,351 5,359 8 15 123
Jan-22 5,251 5,320 5,251 5,306 5,255 5,291 36 101 263
Corn
Turnover: 979,786 lots, or 26.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 2,772 2,772 2,719 2,721 2,769 2,738 -31 64,276 113,780
May-21 2,768 2,775 2,725 2,727 2,777 2,746 -31 737,921 984,379
Jul-21 2,782 2,788 2,742 2,744 2,789 2,758 -31 32,991 129,341
Sep-21 2,738 2,747 2,716 2,718 2,744 2,729 -15 107,859 283,370
Nov-21 2,707 2,707 2,675 2,684 2,704 2,693 -11 35,071 40,236
Jan-22 2,663 2,673 2,651 2,660 2,668 2,663 -5 1,668 2,468
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,745,503 lots, or 61.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 3,659 3,665 3,593 3,618 3,627 3,632 5 66,657 42,873
May-21 3,521 3,528 3,465 3,483 3,498 3,498 0 1,187,400 1,444,940
Jul-21 3,493 3,498 3,440 3,461 3,469 3,472 3 109,230 108,954
Aug-21 3,523 3,530 3,478 3,491 3,503 3,504 1 45,060 16,479
Sep-21 3,542 3,542 3,480 3,501 3,510 3,512 2 322,636 699,337
Nov-21 3,399 3,402 3,358 3,378 3,389 3,385 -4 47 946
Dec-21 3,376 3,385 3,354 3,354 3,356 3,371 15 21 519
Jan-22 3,342 3,345 3,301 3,316 3,313 3,321 8 14,452 51,865
Palm Oil
Turnover: 654,698 lots, or 44.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-21 7,110 7,216 7,110 7,120 7,046 7,146 100 43 5,831
Mar-21 7,230 7,278 7,146 7,188 7,152 7,190 38 8,394 26,044
Apr-21 7,000 7,012 6,888 6,922 6,902 6,932 30 4,367 9,438
May-21 6,780 6,802 6,670 6,716 6,678 6,736 58 606,811 382,920
Jun-21 6,666 6,706 6,590 6,604 6,590 6,636 46 1,060 1,805
Jul-21 6,512 6,512 6,504 6,504 6,430 6,508 78 2 35
Aug-21 – – – 6,286 6,286 6,286 0 0 4
Sep-21 6,364 6,386 6,266 6,302 6,284 6,326 42 33,852 61,316
Oct-21 6,230 6,230 6,126 6,196 6,090 6,184 94 3 8
Nov-21 – – – 6,180 6,180 6,180 0 0 16
Dec-21 6,204 6,204 6,204 6,204 6,176 6,204 28 1 27
Jan-22 6,128 6,150 6,072 6,106 6,104 6,118 14 165 768
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 702,285 lots, or 54.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 8,230 8,348 8,192 8,276 8,208 8,274 66 15,027 6,273
May-21 7,830 7,882 7,754 7,806 7,752 7,822 70 602,630 449,615
Jul-21 7,486 7,526 7,416 7,442 7,402 7,464 62 15,664 34,744
Aug-21 7,340 7,468 7,324 7,344 7,316 7,366 50 8,709 5,550
Sep-21 7,336 7,356 7,244 7,274 7,240 7,296 56 59,503 127,755
Nov-21 7,258 7,280 7,130 7,220 7,202 7,238 36 26 113
Dec-21 7,214 7,244 7,150 7,150 7,154 7,212 58 12 84
Jan-22 7,208 7,254 7,140 7,176 7,154 7,204 50 714 3,900
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
