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WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were higher on buying seen in sympathy with the big rallies in Corn and Soybeans.  There are hopes for additional demand for US Wheat.  Many think China could be a buyer after buying a lot of US Corn.  Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March.  No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime.  Russia was reported to be raising its export taxes in mid March but lately has walked those ideas back and now suggest that the taxes imposed already are enough to control the market.  The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.  Many world buyers such as Egypt have indicated that they still intend to buy Russian Wheat even with the new taxes, so the overall Wheat situation might not change that much even if Russia decides to move ahead with the new taxes in the end.  Northern weather has improved with snow in the Great Plains except for some southern areas that remain dry.  Canada is also better, and some rain and snow has fallen in southern Russia.  It remains much drier than normal in Argentina.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 651, 634, and 629 March, with resistance at 669, 681, and 692 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 630, 618, and 610 March, with resistance at 649, 660, and 668 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 627, 619, and 612 March, and resistance is at 644, 656, and 664 March.

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was higher after making the lows of the day in the first half of the session.  Ideas are that the cash market fundamentals remain negative, but the market does not work lower.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.  Some traders are looking ahead to next year and are wondering how much Rice will get planted.  Our ideas are that a normal crop will get planted as Rice prices compare favorably with Corn, Cotton, and Soybeans.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers early this week. Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1318, 1317, and 1309 March, with resistance at 1336, 1350, and 1362 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 27 

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value  Rough      Rough

($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            17.83        11.38       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    17.51        11.78       0.00

Brokens               11.31         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were higher on follow through fund buying and some commercial buying.  China was a huge buyer of US Corn in reports yesterday and idea are that they bought even more.  The export inspections report showed that Corn inspections on Monday were above trade estimates.  Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week.  Southern Brazil and Argentina also got some very beneficial rain.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the spread out planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  Very little if any of this crop will be exported as it is usually the Winter crop that is exported.

Overnight News:  China bought 680,000 tons of US Corn. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 508, 503, and 496 March, and resistance is at 536, 542, and 545 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 341, 339, and 335 March, and resistance is at 360, 368, and 370 March.

DJ Ethanol Prospects Buoy Corn — Market Talk 

0933 ET – In addition to news of large Chinese buying of US corn exports yesterday, speculation that China would be buying more US ethanol exports has corn futures elevated Wednesday. In an earnings call yesterday, Archer Daniels Midland reported that it has sold 200 million gallons of ethanol to Chinese buyers. However, traders are unsure if Chinese demand will be enough to spur the re-opening of closed ethanol capacity in the US. “The question is when will producers feel confident to get these plants back online,” says Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group. Corn futures traded up 1.9% in pre-market trading on the CBOT Wednesday. The EIA will release its updated ethanol data this morning at 10:30am ET. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS   

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher on fund buying along with some commercial buying.  There was talk of additional Chinese purchases of Soybeans but nothing was confirmed by USDA.  Soybeans are being harvested in Brazil, but progress is very slow.  Very little has been done so far and the progress might be slow due to the spread out planting earlier this year caused by dry conditions.  Many areas had problems with the weather during different parts of the growing season, so yield report estimates have been a little less.  Overall production is still expected to be very strong due to increased planted area.  It is raining now in Brazil and the rain is slowing the progress even more.  There is little sign the US price has rationed demand.  Export demand reports from USDA were very strong last week.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:    China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 126,500 tons of US SoybewANS. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1342, 1298, and 1280 March, and resistance is at 1387, 1413, and 1436 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 444.00, 451.00, and 464.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4190, 4130, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4420, 4440, and 4500 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed sharply lower as export volumes have been much less so far in January.  Prices were lower again today.  Exports have been running at 44% less than last month so far, and the trend is expected to continue for the balance of the month and into February.  The market had been supported by ideas of tight supplies.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Canola was higher along with Chicago.  Ideas of tight supplies have kept Canola prices very strong.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 680.00, 674.00, and 659.00 March, with resistance at 705.00, 711.00, and 717.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3220, 3160, and 3120 April, with resistance at 3300, 3380, and 3420 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Rain and snow early this week and over the coming weekend, otherwise mostly dry or light precipitation.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +79 Mar +160 Mar +110 Mar +65 Mar +30 Mar +550 Mar
February +73 Mar +97 Mar +68 Mar
March +70 Mar +95 Mar +73 Mar
         

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 25 

WINNIPEG–Jan. 25 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          617.20    -32.40    Mar 2021     dn 7.40

Basis: Thunder Bay   689.00     35.00    May 2021     up 18.20

Basis: Vancouver     719.00     65.00    May 2021     up 18.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 27 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           977.50     +32.50      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           922.50     +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   852.50     +27.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   807.50     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           980.00     +32.50      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           925.00     +40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   855.00     +27.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   810.00     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           960.00     +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           860.00     +35.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           3,800.00   +150.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           297.00     +04.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.0428)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 27 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 139,402 lots, or 7.89 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     5,651     5,687     5,620     5,646     5,651     5,653         2     7,213     6,497

May-21     5,656     5,699     5,640     5,658     5,645     5,663        18   129,978    84,695

Jul-21     5,602     5,633     5,586     5,600     5,586     5,605        19        23       741

Sep-21     5,488     5,520     5,483     5,489     5,475     5,501        26     2,111     5,306

Nov-21     5,354     5,354     5,348     5,348     5,316     5,351        35         2       124

Jan-22     5,252     5,287     5,240     5,272     5,265     5,255       -10        75       232

Corn

Turnover: 929,069 lots, or 25.73 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     2,766     2,784     2,752     2,761     2,767     2,769         2    55,273   113,071

May-21     2,778     2,796     2,757     2,765     2,778     2,777        -1   666,309   985,514

Jul-21     2,791     2,809     2,771     2,779     2,791     2,789        -2    32,507   129,728

Sep-21     2,753     2,767     2,726     2,739     2,746     2,744        -2   121,887   274,025

Nov-21     2,707     2,727     2,687     2,704     2,702     2,704         2    51,469    37,106

Jan-22     2,672     2,697     2,657     2,666     2,663     2,668         5     1,624     2,131

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,208,204 lots, or 77.35 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

Settle                                    Interest

Mar-21     3,575     3,676     3,549     3,653     3,521     3,627       106      89,366      43,174

May-21     3,460     3,546     3,449     3,518     3,447     3,498        51   1,579,393   1,457,266

Jul-21     3,446     3,513     3,419     3,491     3,418     3,469        51     121,630     106,949

Aug-21     3,462     3,546     3,448     3,523     3,449     3,503        54      43,469      16,257

Sep-21     3,477     3,553     3,456     3,532     3,460     3,510        50     357,779     692,977

Nov-21     3,316     3,433     3,315     3,410     3,330     3,389        59          71         961

Dec-21     3,323     3,400     3,307     3,388     3,322     3,356        34         332         508

Jan-22     3,292     3,354     3,275     3,332     3,275     3,313        38      16,164      49,624

Palm Oil

Turnover: 802,337 lots, or 53.44 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Feb-21     7,002     7,170     6,958     7,150     6,992     7,046        54     2,281     5,862

Mar-21     7,020     7,230     7,020     7,220     7,014     7,152       138     6,639    27,775

Apr-21     6,794     6,970     6,792     6,960     6,762     6,902       140     3,542     8,996

May-21     6,586     6,756     6,560     6,742     6,560     6,678       118   739,667   403,529

Jun-21     6,476     6,656     6,472     6,634     6,496     6,590        94     1,085     1,585

Jul-21     6,420     6,452     6,420     6,452     6,326     6,430       104         4        35

Aug-21         –         –         –     6,286     6,286     6,286         0         0         4

Sep-21     6,200     6,350     6,178     6,344     6,168     6,284       116    48,699    62,713

Oct-21         –         –         –     6,090     6,090     6,090         0         0         9

Nov-21     6,182     6,182     6,180     6,180     6,066     6,180       114         2        16

Dec-21     6,066     6,204     6,066     6,204     5,992     6,176       184         8        26

Jan-22     6,042     6,130     6,012     6,126     6,014     6,104        90       410       749

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 694,440 lots, or 5.35 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     8,110     8,274     8,082     8,252     8,026     8,208       182    12,417     7,149

May-21     7,700     7,826     7,656     7,818     7,616     7,752       136   608,878   446,800

Jul-21     7,306     7,478     7,306     7,476     7,268     7,402       134    11,105    34,945

Aug-21     7,220     7,384     7,220     7,378     7,178     7,316       138     5,871     5,604

Sep-21     7,168     7,308     7,140     7,306     7,114     7,240       126    55,094   130,109

Nov-21     7,192     7,242     7,190     7,242     6,998     7,202       204        46       130

Dec-21     7,132     7,176     7,132     7,176     7,070     7,154        84         4        95

Jan-22     7,100     7,214     7,068     7,214     7,062     7,154        92     1,025     3,826

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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