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WHEAT          

General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed to mostly lower as fundamentals have turned a little.  The weather has improved in the Great Plains and in southern Russia as both areas have seen precipitation.  The northern Great Plains remain dry.  US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand.  Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships but remains moderate and the US price needs to remain close to the international price.  World prices are stable to a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated and as farmers there refuse to sell as they wait for higher prices.  Russian farmers got a blow when the government announced export taxes that cut the domestic price, but farmers there are holding firm.  Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward.  US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in par4ts of the western Great Plains.  Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 674 March.  Support is at 643, 634, and 628 March, with resistance at 660, 664, and 670 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 597, 593, and 587 March, with resistance at 616, 618, and 624 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 630 and 634 March.  Support is at 590, 583, and 574 March, and resistance is at 614, 620, and 626 March.

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was higher again yesterday in quiet trading.  Trading still reflects the lack of activity in the domestic cash market and the lack of activity is causing some volatility to enter.  The lack of offer from producers is supporting futures now.  Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks but improved yesterday due to the futures market volatility.  The cash market is slow.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.  Export demand has held well despite the higher prices

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1259, 1248, and 1245 March, with resistance at 1270, 1281, and 1293 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 6 

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value  Rough      Rough

($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            17.31        11.05       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    17.00        11.44       0.00

Brokens               10.98         —-       —-

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments:  Corn closed higher and Oats were lower, with Corn rallying amid worries about the dry weather in South America and ideas of strong demand for US Corn.  Trends are still up in both markets as the focus shifts to the WASDE reports next week that could show increased Corn demand and less production.  Export demand has held strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market.  Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand.  It has rained in central and northern Brazil.  Southern Brazil and Argentina were mostly dry.  Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil.  Current forecasts call for a change in the weather and indicate more rain for the south.  Some very timely and beneficial rains are forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina at that time and most crop areas are expected to get at least some rain.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with no objectives.  Support is at 480, 473, and 467 March, and resistance is at 502, 505, and 508 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 352, 347, and 339 March, and resistance is at 370, 373, and 376 March.

Ethanol Data: 

Ethanol production reached 935,000 barrels per day in the week ending Jan. 1st, from 934,000 the previous week and 1.062 million barrels per day in the same week last year.  Ethanol production used 96.4 million bushels of corn in the week ending January 1, versus 96.3 million the previous week and versus 105.9 million bushels the previous year.  Estimated marketing year corn use for ethanol production to date is 1.721 billion bushels, down 101 million from the previous year.  Ethanol stocks were 23.3 million barrels in the week ending January 1, from 23.5 million the previous week and 22.5 million last year.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS   

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher once again on ideas of less production and bigger demand and less ending stocks in the WASDE reports next week.  There are still some forecasts of rains in South America.  The best precipitation for Argentina and southern Brazil is expected next week.  The forecasts call for very timely and beneficial rains for these areas.  Just about all areas should see some precipitation at one point or another for the system as it moves through the region.  Demand remains a feature of the market as US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on.  China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled and switched some contracts made to unknown destinations.  Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall.  The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil but remains dire in southern Brazil and Argentina.  The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand.  The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.

Overnight News:   USDA said that 130,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to unknown destinations and 213,350 tons of US Soybeans were sold to unknown destinations. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1350, 1293, and 1268 March, and resistance is at 1388, 1400, and 1412 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 451.00 March.   Support is at 432.00, 426.00, and 421.00 March, and resistance is at 444.00, 447.00, and 450.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 4200, 4130, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4470, 4500, and 4530 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher on supply concerns.  Production of Palm Oil and most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Export demand has been strong and ethanol demand has been moderate.  Canola was higher with Chicago and Malaysia.  Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil, but the resolution of the dock and oilseeds workers strikes in Argentina pushed prices a little lower for a day.  Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option.  Trends are up.  Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 654.00 and 671.00 March.  Support is at 636.00, 631.00, and 629.00 March, with resistance at 655.00, 658.00, and 661.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 3770, 3630, and 3560 March, with resistance at 3910, 3940, and 3970 March.

DJ Malaysia Dec. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports Rose 16.8%, SGS Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-31 period are estimated to have risen 16.8% from a month earlier to 1,624,757 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

December 1-31        November 1-30

RBD Palm Olein               311,175              415,415

RBD Palm Oil                  95,345               81,135

RBD Palm Stearin              95,934               90,975

Crude Palm Oil               706,345              416,198

Total*                     1,624,757            1,390,685

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +78 Mar +157 Mar +95 Mar +78 Jan N/A N/A
February +77 Mar +97 Mar +76 Mar
March +70 Mar +95 Mar +76 Mar
         

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 6 

WINNIPEG, Jan. 6 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source:  ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          615.90    -30.00    Mar 2021    up  10.20

Basis: Thunder Bay   697.00     45.00    Mar 2021    up   6.10

Basis: Vancouver     712.00     60.00    Mar 2021    up   6.10

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 7 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1037.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb          1027.50     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           995.00     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   932.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   852.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1040.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb          1030.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           997.50     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   935.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   855.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1015.00     -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           900.00     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           4,000.00   -40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           340.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.035)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 07 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 113,831 lots, or 6.64 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     5,747     5,760     5,736     5,740     5,737     5,749        12       410     3,552

Mar-21     5,834     5,845     5,786     5,810     5,788     5,816        28     4,434     7,227

May-21     5,848     5,873     5,805     5,832     5,805     5,835        30   107,238    89,206

Jul-21     5,749     5,780     5,728     5,755     5,731     5,751        20       583     1,210

Sep-21     5,743     5,751     5,696     5,725     5,690     5,722        32     1,129     2,942

Nov-21     5,538     5,538     5,474     5,494     5,431     5,495        64        37       169

Corn

Turnover: 665,604 lots, or 18.59 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-21     2,750     2,797     2,723     2,749     2,725     2,742        17     3,231       8,442

Mar-21     2,768     2,786     2,767     2,777     2,761     2,776        15    31,674      87,894

May-21     2,786     2,811     2,784     2,806     2,781     2,800        19   510,463   1,095,080

Jul-21     2,802     2,822     2,796     2,815     2,794     2,811        17    24,460     134,726

Sep-21     2,761     2,787     2,761     2,780     2,762     2,777        15    71,926     208,241

Nov-21     2,672     2,699     2,667     2,699     2,659     2,686        27    23,850      22,850

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,703,516 lots, or 60.12 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

Settle                                    Interest

Jan-21     3,508     3,520     3,505     3,520     3,470     3,508        38         247         340

Mar-21     3,529     3,566     3,496     3,533     3,492     3,527        35     109,724      50,109

May-21     3,548     3,559     3,496     3,517     3,514     3,522         8   1,214,440   1,682,718

Jul-21     3,544     3,563     3,500     3,521     3,509     3,526        17      77,937      81,847

Aug-21     3,580     3,586     3,524     3,540     3,532     3,554        22      10,669      11,701

Sep-21     3,590     3,598     3,531     3,556     3,550     3,558         8     290,265     615,440

Nov-21     3,500     3,505     3,460     3,478     3,483     3,489         6         162       1,010

Dec-21     3,500     3,505     3,456     3,468     3,468     3,472         4          72       1,800

Palm Oil

Turnover: 765,226 lots, or 55.69 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     7,000     7,788     7,000     7,472     7,350     7,454       104       272       501

Feb-21     7,632     7,688     7,614     7,682     7,576     7,654        78    21,631    27,902

Mar-21     7,610     7,668     7,596     7,650     7,546     7,632        86     9,752    17,959

Apr-21     7,438     7,482     7,412     7,466     7,322     7,442       120     6,589     6,363

May-21     7,266     7,328     7,238     7,296     7,142     7,282       140   692,610   374,020

Jun-21     7,092     7,136     7,022     7,114     6,896     7,094       198       784     1,166

Jul-21     6,998     7,058     6,936     6,936     6,850     6,976       126        51        38

Aug-21     6,898     6,898     6,852     6,860     6,676     6,864       188         5         4

Sep-21     6,780     6,840     6,730     6,796     6,654     6,784       130    33,517    36,682

Oct-21         –         –         –     6,654     6,654     6,654         0         0        20

Nov-21         –         –         –     6,610     6,516     6,610        94         0        24

Dec-21     6,758     6,758     6,604     6,652     6,454     6,708       254        15        16

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 806,862 lots, or 65.36 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     8,880     8,886     8,650     8,886     8,818     8,830        12        90     4,874

Mar-21     8,570     8,588     8,458     8,550     8,476     8,536        60    11,718     8,622

May-21     8,150     8,196     8,094     8,164     8,058     8,150        92   679,420   498,789

Jul-21     7,850     7,962     7,834     7,906     7,746     7,902       156    25,639    25,256

Aug-21     7,736     7,862     7,736     7,802     7,652     7,800       148     6,394     4,247

Sep-21     7,646     7,790     7,646     7,716     7,562     7,718       156    83,522    77,177

Nov-21     7,618     7,696     7,612     7,612     7,498     7,660       162        66       115

Dec-21     7,544     7,588     7,462     7,532     7,488     7,550        62        13        18

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
 
 
 
 

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